Thursday, December 31, 2015

12/31/15 - EOD Update

Looks like bears were able to print five waves down. The bulls have that as a wave [a.

One thing to note is the fact that since 12/14, we have seen a series of five waves up and down so who knows for sure.

I am long for the new year but will tap out of the trade with a close below 2040.

On the 60 min, an ascending triangle pattern could be in the works but still a lil too early to tell so lets just keep an eye on that.

Happy New Year to all!

15 Min 

60 Min 


12/31/15 - AM Update

11:55 AM - The bears are trying to make five waves down. They need to print five waves down first  and defend 2069.10. Looks like a potential H/S too but didn't label it on the chart. Target is near 2010.

I went long for a trade this morning on the dip to 2050 and backtest of the trendline.

We'll see and Happy New Year to all!!

11:55 AM - 15 Min

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

12/30/15 - EOD Update

Looks like the market confirmed the end of the five wave count I was tracking since 12/18. If wave -iii is truly underway, then a buying opportunity should be coming up within the Fib levels. As of today's close, looks like its pretty close.

Things to consider though is the fact that the market closed below the 50 day SMA and is sitting just above the 200.

We'll see how the market reacts tomorrow. I may be looking to go long tomorrow for a trade in preparation for the new year.  Buying near 2050 would be nice since it would make for a 38% retrace and a backtest of the gray descending trendline.

15 Min 

60 Min

Daily BB

12/30/15 - AM Update

7:58 AM - Some Fib targets and trendlines. So far holding in the rising channel and at 38%.

If the market manages to poke above yesterday's high and stall near the upper red trendline, I will start to pay attention to the red rising wedge.

Right now I'm looking for an opportunity to buy either within the yellow Fibs or on a larger pullback towards the blue Fib and/or gray trendline on a back test.

7:58 AM - 15 Min 

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

12/29/15 - AM Update

12:15 PM -  Five waves complete? Looks decent.

12:15 PM - 15 MIn 

7:00 AM - Working on the fifth wave. We also have the break out of the triangle.

I am a lil cautious though because the wave structures since 12/14 have counted as five up and five down. Regardless, as posted last night, the primary count is that wave -iii up is underway.

7:00 AM - 15 Min 

7:00 AM - 60 Min 

Monday, December 28, 2015

12/28/15 - EOD Update

The 15 min chart highlights the potential five wave move higher for what would be the start of wave -iii up (bull count).

The 60 min chart highlights potential combo corrective I tweeted earlier. If this is correct, the combo is ending with a triangle (in gray).

15 Min 

60 Min 

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

12/23/15 - EOD Update

The primary bull count is that wave -iii is underway. The assumption is that wave -iii will take out 2076 and challenge 2100. Wave -iii = -i at 2089ish.

The primary count for the bears is that a larger wave (y) yellow or (c) blue is underway (see daily chart). This would be a choppy wave structure down tho because these waves overlap a fair bit.

The bulls closed above the 50 day SMA and continue to find support at 2020.

The bears continue to print lower lows and lower highs.

Where are we headed? Thats anyone's guess. I'm just gonna keep trading the third (3 or c) waves until we get a decisive breakout.
15 Min 

60 Min 


Daily Bollinger Bands

12/23/15 - AM Update

11:20 AM - That's an extended 3rd wave for sure. Still remains to be seen if its a wave 3 or C.

11:20 AM - 15 Min 

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

12/22/15 - AM Update

11:40 AM - So far got that bounce I was looking for. I have it labeled as {i-{ii-{iii but that can also be {a-{b{c. So far the market has hit the first Fib retrace and near 50%.

Taking half off of my long trade from 12/18. I favor a test of 2076 and more but just in case this wacky market pulls a fast one.

11:40 AM - 15 Min 

Monday, December 21, 2015

12/21/15 - EOD Update

Its possible wave iv red is not complete. Either way I'm looking for a bounce.

Fib levels are:

38% = 20320
50% = 2040
62% = 2050

We shall see.

Sunday, December 20, 2015

12/20/15 Update

Should get interesting this week. The 15min chart I have been tracking to go long (took a half position again) is also showing what may be five waves down.

The primary count for me at this point is an a-b-c corrective.  For this trade, the invalidation point is1993.26.

Should a breach below 1993 occur then I would look to the daily chart  below for some guidance.

15 Min

60 Min 

Some time ago, I was tracking the yellow (w)-(x)  count. This would be one to consider should 1993 be lost. I have also introduced a larger triangle count (a)-(b)-(c)-(d) in blue. That lower trendline would hit near 1890ish should wave (c) of the triangle be playing out. Note this is pretty much the same result for the yellow option, except the triangle would require a lil more chop.

So first things first. Let's see if 1993 holds. If not, then I'll be looking at the daily chart options.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

12/15/15 - EOD Update

Looks like it has followed the script quite nicely. Now lets see if it provides a decent pullback to buy.

15 MIn 

Monday, December 14, 2015

12/14/15 - EOD Update

The market took a lil dip just below the bottom of the channel and hit 50% retracement at 1992. Looks like three waves up so far.

As I posted on Friday  if I see five waves up from here,  I may look to go long off the pullback.

The market also managed to form a hammer candlestick. We'll see.

15 Min 

60 Min 


Friday, December 11, 2015

12/11/15 - EOD Update

A few different counts have been invalidated with the decline over the past few days. The long trade I took is done (glad only took a half position). We now find the market at some levels that is marked with converging channels and Fib levels.

2020 is at 38% and 1992 at 50%. May look for another long position to trade should the market find some footing at the lower end of this gray channel. Ideally I would like to see a five wave bounce at the 15 min interval first so lets see what happens next week.

60 Min

That five wave move at the 15 min interval would look something like this.

15 Min 

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

12/9/15 - EOD Update

Keeping an eye on the triangle since this is getting choppy.

60 Min 

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

11/8/15 - AM Update

8:27 AM - Good to see it come off the lows and overlap into wave c of this pullback. See the 5 min chart for the overlap.

If you have the balls you can go long here and stop out below wave {ii. I'm hanging on to my half long position from yesterday.

5 Min 

60 Min 

Monday, December 7, 2015

12/7/15 - AM Update

7:00 AM - In case you need a visual of the five waves. Here is the 1 min chart. Pretty clean.

7:00 AM -- 1 Min 

6:50 AM - Last week I was looking for five waves to complete on the rally.

The market extended a little bit higher so we'll see if this is wave {ii green playing out with today's dip.

The competing count is that wave {iii red is underway for wave -c red. I'm leaning towards buying the dip first since there is a triangular/consolidating pattern to this. Hopefully can get 50% retracement near 2070. We shall see.

6:50 AM - 60 Min 

Thursday, December 3, 2015

12/3/15 - EOD Update

The long trade today for the quick bounce was short lived. As I posted earlier in today's AM Update there was a potential for a larger flat in the works on the 60 min chart. I have updated the chart below to highlight that count.

The flat for the 15 min count is not out yet. On the 60 min chart below it is represented by wave -ii blue. That option is out if price drops below the wave ii green or wave -a blue low. That level is 2019.39.
60 Min 
The daily chart below could truly disappoint the bears should it play out as a large H/S or excite the bears with a rounding top.

12/3/15 - AM Update

6:55 AM - The bulls are being challenged by a bearish five wave count down, however, it may just be a wave c of an expanded flat.

I have updated the bull count to reflect the expanded flat, which makes decent sense considering wave -a green looks like three waves and wave -b green also looks like three waves. We shall see.

The 200 day SMA is near 2065 so there maybe support here.

15 Min 
 However, on the 60 min chart below, a much larger flat could be in the works and if that is the case, wave c could target 2020 again.

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

12/1/15 - EOD Update

Got the neckline break on the yellow inv H/S. We'll see what she does not at 2100.

Upper daily Bollinger Band near 2120, which is near the target for the yellow inv H/S. Daily MACD about to cross up.

15 Min 


Saturday, November 28, 2015


We'll see if the market breaks thru the yellow neckline next week.

15 Min 

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

11/25/15 - AM Update

11:34 AM - Looks like consolidating in a tri. The yellow inv H/S targets 2120ish.

11:34 AM - 15 Min 

7:15 AM - With today's little dip, the right shoulder may have formed on the inv H/S (yellow) I mentioned yesterday.

7:15 AM - 15 Min

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

11/24/15 - EOD Update

I went long today and hope the H/S plays out. Was looking for the dip to 38% retrace so we'll see if this is the case.

The bears lost their impulse when the bulls tore thru the red horizontal line. The bears' next best count would be a double zig zag should a lower low occur.

I didn't highlight it on the chart below but a smaller inv H/S could be forming that would target approx 2120.

15 Min 

11/24/15 - AM Update

8:20 AM - Bears need to defend the red horizontal. That marks the end of what would be wave 1 albeit a corrective wave 1, which I believe is corrective, hence the long position.

8:20 AM - 15 Min

7:14 AM - The market had a lil more to go after breaking out of the lil triangle and completed all five waves at 2097. We'll see if 38% is the target for retrace.

7:14 AM - 15 Min

Thursday, November 19, 2015

11/19/15 - AM Update

7:35 AM - Possible five waves complete for the bulls at 2085. This may have set the neckline of a larger inv H/S that targets 2150.

Small short in play for a Fib pullback and will then look to go long. Short stop above 2085.

7:35 AM - 15 Min

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

11/18/15 - EOD Update

The bear count posted is now out (see new alternate below). The market broke out of the expanding diagonal. The orange H/S is now more unlikely too.

The bias would be to look for the market to challenge the 2116 high first. From there, we can potentially look at the new bearish option of a much larger expanding diagonal triangle. (in red)

15 Min 

If the bulls have their way, they are in the midst of launching higher in a wave iii or c per the 60 min chart.

60 Min 
If the bulls succeed in taking out 2135, then it just means that wave 5? green was not complete yet per the daily chart.


So first things first. Lets see what happens at 2116.