Saturday, January 30, 2016

1/30/16

The market finally broke out of the ascending triangle I was following. Near term  (15 min) I have it working on wave [a of -y. Could be complete or near completion.

There is a gap that can be filled at 1950 and the  inverted H/S targets calls for 1980-2000.

The bulls regained the 20 day SMA and the 50 is hovering near 2007 at the moment. Perhaps a backtest there?

Wave {iv on the 60 min below is ruled out with a poke over 2019.39.

The weekly printed a hammer last week and was confirmed this week along with positive divergence.

So my strategy hope this next week is to find a wave b to buy. Maybe 1t 1920 or hopefully on a backtest of the asc tri at 1910ish.

15 Min 

60 Min 

Daily

Weekly

Friday, January 29, 2016

1/29/16 - AM Update

7:45 AM - Just realized that wave -x pink counts better as a combo corrective; ending in that lil gray tri. Link for a combo corrective here.

7:45 AM - 15 min



7:31 AM - Thru the first barrier. Rejection so far at the next. Maybe another shot to get in long before the complete breakout.

15 Min 

Thursday, January 28, 2016

1/28/16 - EOD Update

Not much to add. Looks like the ascending triangle is still playing out. Much cleaner on ES.

15 Min 

60 Min 

ES

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

1/27/16 - EOD Update

The market continues to chop up and down. Today the most bullish triple nested 1-2 option and nested 1-2 was invalidated.

The double zigzag is still intact with a slight adjustment. Wave -x is an expanded flat and it looks decent. Wave [a and [b both look like three wave structures and wave [c as the impulse down.

15 Min 

60 Min 
 Daily MACD is about to cross up so I still favor wave -y to come at the least.
Daily

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

1/26/16 - EOD Update

I took half my long position off after gaining 20 points.

On the 5 min chart, a double zig-zag is my primary count. Today's lil pullback would be wave [b of -y. The bullish alternative is a triple nested 1-2.

Based on this near term count, I expect another leg higher to target the 1920-1940(20 day SMA). Area.

5 Min 
 The purple inv H/S may give the bullish alternate some more cred.
15 Min 
 With all this volatility, anything goes and several other alternate options may come into play if the market dips below 1859.86. If that were to occur, that would take out the triple nested 1-2 option and the nested -i -ii [i [ii option.

60 Min
Something to be prepared for is a potential triangle if the market consolidates between 1900 - 1800. I highlight this in the 60 min above.

However, if the guideline of alternation is in effect, I would expect wave {iv to be a sharp rebound since wave {ii was wide. Then again, it is just a guideline so anything goes.

Monday, January 25, 2016

1/25/16 - EOD Update

In the past two sessions, I have tweeted the potential nested -i -ii, [i [ii setup. This applies to the five minute chart below.

However, if you pan out to the 15 and 60 min, a potential double zig-zag may be in the works to complete wave {iv. I'm looking for a move back towards the 1920/40 area. This would also backtest the 20 SMA.

I was looking for the backtest of the neckline on the inv H/S and that is what the market did today. I dipped back in again but will admit I'm not too confident. I'll stop out below wave [ii on the 5 min chart below.

5 Min 

15 Min  
60 Min 

Friday, January 22, 2016

1/22/16 - AM Update

7:30 AM - I'm out of my long trade from yesterday. So far only three waves up off Wed's 1/20 bounce. We'll see if the bulls can form five waves up.

7:30 AM - 5 Min 

Thursday, January 21, 2016

1/21/16 - EOD Update

As I speculated yesterday, breaking out of the wedge didn't require another dip lower for wave v. I removed the ending diagonal count since price broke up thru the wedge.

The count on the 15 min chart makes more sense should buying resume tomorrow. The inv H/S targets approx 1950.

15 Min 
 On the 60 min below,  since things feel more bearish, we'll go with a wave iv bounce for now.
60 Min 
However, on the daily charts below, the case can be made for a completed flat.

Daily
The last two hammers (one hammer on 10-15-15 and one inverted hammer on 8-25-15) were confirmed with reversals. We'll see if it happens again.
Daily Hammer

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

1/20/16 - EOD Update

Some buyers came in or shorts covering the day. We'll see if this breaks up out of the falling wedge. The bounce could still be a wave iv and possibly dip once more lower for v. Doesn't have to tho so we'll see tomorrow.

15 Min 

60 Min
If you believe in the daily yellow option below, a potential flat may be complete. Of course the caveat is that the other flat in blue has wave (c) = (a) at this point but 1.618*(a) = 1705ish so we'll be ready.

Daily

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

1/19/16 - EOD Update

Wowz, /ES down 28 as of this posting (9:30 PM PST). Earlier today I tweeted that the structure on the 60 min chart is looking wedgie (ending diagonal).

At the moment, I'm not quite sure which sub-wave is working out but tomorrow's move lower, should /ES continue, either be wave 3 or 5 of the ending diagonal.

We'll see.
60 Min 

Monday, January 18, 2016

Thursday, January 14, 2016

1/14/16 - EOD Update

60 Min 

1/14/16 - AM Update

7:42 AM - Will see if a nice retrace occurs to get in.
7:42 AM - 5 Min 


7:30 AM - 5 points shy of 1.618* extension of wave {a red. Lets see if the bulls will step in here with a triple bottom.

The bears are looking to form wave {iv. 2019.39 is the wave {i or {a low so that has to be defended to keep the larger impulse count in play.

Positive divergence on 15 and 60 min intervals. Will look for a long trade setup here with today's low as the stop.

7:30 AM - 60 Min 

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

1/13/16 - EOD Update

Looks like we got those five waves down to complete or nearly complete wave {c on the 60 min chart. Note that gives priority to the purple count that blends in with the red. This would complete an expanded flat that could be all or part of wave (y) orange on the daily.

The bearish alternate is the pink count that has a much larger impulse wave down in the works. This would play out as a larger wave (c) on the daily. One can use the blue labels as well. Wave (c) =(a) near 1860 and 1.618* (a) near 1710.

The bullish count is that the wave structure is now completing wave (c) of the triangle. It is hovering at the lower trendline. This bullish count would be out if 1867.08 or 8/25/15 low is taken out.

60 Min 

Daily
Haven't posted the RUT in a while but it looks like its in trouble with a potential H/S.

RUT

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

1/12/16 - EOD Update

I'm guessing the next 2-3 sessions will tell us whether we see another leg lower in what would be wave -v of {c or the start of a bullish comeback in what would be wave (d) of the large triangle on the daily chart. 

60 Min 

Daily

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Been a while since my last update but the larger picture is still developing. Since my last post, I mentioned that the triangle made the most sense. So far the market is approaching the lower end of the trendline.

Note the alternate yellow count I have had for some time now is also still in play and would result in a flat that retests the 1850s.
Daily
The 60 Min below just highlights the potential subwave options for either wave (c) of the triangle above or wave (y) orange.
60 Min 




Monday, January 4, 2016

1/4/15 - EOD Update

Well last week's long trade was a bust. The H/S I mentioned last week played out  and the bulls also lost their bullish count on the 15 min chart.

I relabeled the 60 min chart, which at this point looks like a double zigzag (w-x-y). On the 60 min chart I have the count in a wave a of y.

Its one big choppy mess up here so the triangle on the daily chart is still in play and makes the most sense at the moment.

Its not complete doom and gloom quite yet either since there is a potential bullish pennant in the works.

60 Min 

Daily