Saturday, July 20, 2019

Since my last post on 4/3/19, I was tracking a potential ending diagonal. It didn't quite fit the definition but the resulting pullback confirmed the end of that leg. Looks like that peaked on 5/1 that I have labeled as wave i or (a). A subsequent sell off for about a month to establish a wave ii or (b) before resuming higher.

The two scenarios I'm tracking is

1. A larger ending diagonal (Yellow trend lines) to complete wave 5

2. A potential larger wave 4 expanded flat, which would required a wave c? green down to challenge the Dec 2018 (ha! Thanks Pedro!) low. I have that labeled as green a, 4? or iv?.

I lean towards option 1 at the moment as the market is trading above it's moving averages and the breakout over 2954, the previous resistance area. Until those fail lets go with that. Should they fail, then we may have to pay attention to option 2.

SPX - Daily

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