Since my last post, I wanted to wait for the market to signal the possible end to the count I have been tracking. I think the market finally completed the five waves up out of my triangle wave 4.
The question is now what do these five waves off the March 2020 low represent in the bigger scheme of things. I'll try to post an update to my long term chart over the weekend if I have time.
For now, the pullback looks corrective to me and it has been a while since I have taken the time to count the squiggles. On a 1min interval, this all looks corrective to me.
Best corrective count is a double zig-zag. So far waves w and x have played out and now it is working on wave a of y. My dotted lines on the 1min below is just a guess as to the expected path for y if it takes on another zig-zag pattern. However, the corrective pattern does not have to form another zig-zag. Maybe it turns into a triangle or just a bigger mess of corrective waves too hard to count before completing it's correction. We will just have to see.
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| SPX - 1 Min |
On the 60 min below, iF wave y = w it will land somewhere near approximately 3188. It doesn't have to but just an area to keep an eye on IF it does.
A more bearish view would call for a series of nested 1-2 i-ii waves down. I don't necessarily see it as a top alternate at the moment but mentally prepare oneself should we see a bigger flush beyond wave y=w.
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| SPX - 60 Min |
The daily below with the moving averages included. Price is sandwiched in between the 20 and 50 day. After breaking below the 20 day, it has been rejected on the retest twice so far.
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| SPX- Daily |
