Thursday, October 22, 2009

10/22: SPX, SPY and TRANS

Not much new to add tonight. Unless price takes out the 1101.36 high I still believe a new impulse wave is working it's way down. Wave ii, possibly minuette, worked it's way into the close.

Minuette ii bounced at the close right off the 78.6% retracement, which still qualifies it as a wave 2. We will just have to see if it pushes lower in what may be a minuette iii or are we in store for a final push higher to complete this leg.

I still find the 13 waves from the 1019.95 low on 10/2 significant. A move lower beyond the 1060 gap support would invalidate the alternate count I have labeled in blue.

I included a SPY chart because I wanted to highlight the negative divergence with the MACD and OBV indicators. One other thing to note is that with each MACD signal line cross (highlighted by the red bars), price followed accordingly.

In this case price pulled back and followed a trend with each successive drop .

It appears MACD is setting up for another cross (but it does also look like it may be flattening out). If it does, will price follow through and drop to the lower (purple) trendline?

The trannies are still working on their impulse. A hammer formed today but we will have to see confirmation of a reveral back up.

MACD is showing negative divergence.


  1. It may be the perma bear in me, but for what it is worth, I agree with your primary count. After reading a lot of views and news, I think this is the count that will catch the most people off guard today. If it is, it would be a 3 down and could be a good move. One other thought that I had, is that it bounces along today before making the 3 move down on Monday.

    Full disclosure: I was caught off guard yesterday... so don't anybody take my word for it.

    Good luck!

  2. msswamprat,

    that worked out ok today didn't it? i think we have more to go next week!



  3. I'm still with you on this one and didn't make back everything from Thursday, but did do very good with this count.

    Monday should be interesting and tell us a lot. Unfortunately, I'll be traveling for work and will miss most of the day. Although sometimes it is good to take a break and just see what happens. There will be plenty of good opportunities coming. I think sooner than later.