12/10/10 - EOD Update - SPX Target of 1300-1350 by 6/17/11? [Edited 12/12/10]

 [Edited 12/12/10- Added a Minor 4 Combo Corrective Option and a Long Term count below]

Did that get your attention? Not sure at the moment exactly where the market is heading but several of my charts below indicate that the market may intend to climb there. I'm not saying this is what I want and hope for (but of course I would welcome it if it happens) but just saying this is how I interpret the charts.

Though this rally may be long in the tooth, I'd say the larger trend remains bullish.

I am dumping these charts for you to decipher and will come back and address each one later if they don't make sense on their own.

I want to say that minute [i] of Minor 5 is nearing an end but there are still several options on the table. One such option is the Minor 4 Flat or combo corrective that I would say is the best alternate (from a slightly bearish perspective) at the moment.

SPX - Preferred [Edited 9:30 PM]

3 Min [Edited 9:30 PM]

This count implies that the market is still working on subminuette iii of minuette (v) of minute [i] of Minor 5. A Fib extension of subminuette iii to subminuette i looks to target 1245ish.

Weekly Bollinger Bands

Bull Channel

Cup and Handle

Minor 5 = Minor 1 at 1292.

Fib Fans

If the market shot straight up to the next fib fan above (62.8%), it would target approximately 1292. 

Reverse Fibonacci / Fib Confluences

The next Fib confluence targets approx 1290. The confluence is not as tight as 1232 but I believe it shouldn't be ignore when considering other factors pointing to this level. 

RUT

TZA

Minor 4 Flat Alternate Option

This option is still possible here as an expanded flat. If this option were to play out, the red Fib extensions would be the logical targets for minute [c].

Minor 4 Combo Corrective Option

Minor 2 took one month to complete. Minor 4 would take two months to complete and tag the lower channel if a flat/triangle combo formed. If this option were to play out, I believe 1200 would be the support level for the triangle.

Even this long term count supporting EWI's bearish count, implies that 1350 may be the intended target. You may have seen this chart a few times now as well.

9/13/10 EOD

Daily Preferred

Just an update to this daily preferred count. I am anticipating 5 minute waves ([i],[ii],[iii],[iv] and [v]) for this last leg up to form Minor C of Intermediate (Z) of Primary wave 2.

Don't forget to check out the other counts I have been following by clicking on the Interesting Charts link to the left.

Diamond Bottom?

An update to this chart shows the push out of the diamond continues.

We are close.

WEEKLY MAs

 A revisit of this weekly chart shows the 200 weekly MA at approximately 1200 at the moment. We have a weekly MACD bull cross in effect as well.

8/17/10

11:50 AM

An updated look. Are we repeating a similiar pattern? Up and down through the fall of 2009.

10:35 AM - 100 and 200 Week MA

Here's a follow up to this chart posted on 8/3. We are clearly over the 50 day MA and so far over the 13 week EMA, which was support for most of the rise off the Mar 09 low. Last week we saw a little hiccup on the weekly MACD as it was trying to climb over the centerline. That cross up is still very possible.

We'll see what happens.

Another option I see to explain the move off the Apr high as only a correction. The yellow Fibs are an extension of A. Wave C, if this plays out, targets the 1018 - 950 and as low as 840 if C=1.618*A.

Keep in mind the wave B triangle that I propose may require a little more time especially for subwave d.

9:00 AM Update

The market is working it's way back toward the 25% channel, which at the moment is at approximately 1102.

9:00 AM Update

I still like this chart as well. Looking for the completion of T3. If this current T3 emulates the first one, we may see one more pullback from this bounce before it breaks higher if using the MACD trendline as a guideline and the previous price pattern.

8:50 AM

For those of you who may have forgotten about this count. This is how the nested 1-2s would apply.

So far this chart that was posted yesterday is looking pretty good. If we are working on C up (this would be 3 up based on my nested 1-2 bullish option), it is only i of C.

Yesterday's bollinger band chart provided some useful information when the market touched the lower band and bounced. Now I'm keeping an eye on the mid-band or the 20 SMA at 1105. That looks like a very good near term target.

SPX - 100 AND 200 WEEK MAs

Here's a comparison of the 100 and 200 weekly SMA over the past decade. The support and resistance levels have been noted.

Something I find interesting (and may have no bearing on anything) is the price action during Jan 08 - Aug 08 as the market bounced in between the 100 and 200 as they were still rising. With each backtest of the MAs, the market was rejected each time until it crashed from Sept - Dec 08.

Now the market has climbed out of the abyss and broke through the 100 in Nov 08, backtested it and found support there.

The market is now sandwiched in between the MAs again. The 200 has been challenged once and has provided resistance. However the market has found support at the 100 a few times now.  Currently, the 200 sits at 1210.

Should the market rally above, will we see the inverse (not necessarily a melt up) of the Jan 08-Aug 08 period?

The market rally assumption comes from the current MACD configuration since it is looking pretty bullish. A signal cross and centerline crossover is imminent.

A few more weeks may be telling...