4/14/10 - SPX EOD

SPX TRENDLINE

SPX PREFERRED COUNT- 60 MIN

SPY ED OPTION

SPX ROAD TO 1228

This is probably the last post I'll be making until next Monday as I will be on vacation. That being said, It is good to be long with the trend. Scalping these pull backs have been very profitable the past couple weeks. 

The trend remains up but it appears we may be reaching a point of resistance as the top chart highlights. If using the Ending Diagonal option (SPY Chart), this would corroborate this thesis. But until I see 5 impulse waves down with the associated moving average cross-overs (down), the trend will remain up.

My preferred count (60 Minute Chart) shows us working on minuette (iii) of minute [v]. 1215-1220 looks like a good potential target as it represents many things. One being minuette (iii) = 1.618*(i) at approximately 1215.  Refer to the chart for other Fib relationships and target level justifications. 

One thing to note, the SPY ED option is coming to a head as it is only .28 cents away from voiding itself. 121.45 would be the maximum length minuette (v) can be in order to use this count. So for now, this option is still on the table. If SPY takes out this number, we can say bye-bye to this count.

The last chart is one that I have posted for a few weeks now. It is pretty clear the market is trying to hit that inverted head and shoulders target. Price is coming up on that upper ascending trendline so this may be a fitting place for Minor A to end with a Minor B pullback. 

Notice the bearish wedge pattern? However, it still looks like it has some more room to wiggle up before coming to a head. Just one other way to look at this move higher. We'll see...

4/13/10 - SPX EOD [10:30 PM Update Road to 1228 Continued]

http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2010/03/road-to-spx-1228.html[10:30 PM Update Road to 1228 Continued]

 SPX - 3/17/2010

SPX - 4/13/2010

I posted the top chart on 3/17/10 questioning where the market may head if it chose to climb higher. See post here. Well here we are today.

I think we are still heading towards 1228 albeit with a pullback in between. I adjusted the Fib retrace levels to reflect the changes in the structure since my last post.

If Minor A is complete or very close to completion, a Minor B wave pullback to 1140 would result in a an approximately 5% correction.

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SPX PREFERRED COUNT - 60 MIN

SPX PREFERRED COUNT - 5 MIN

SPY ENDING DIAGONAL OPTION - 60 MIN

Well here it is. We are getting close to completing this leg up. Remember, there are still several options as to what this top will represent.

In summary these are the possible tops I am considering this to be:
1. P2 (or a Primary degree top)
2. Minor A of (Z) of P2 (or a Primary degree top)
3. Minute [iii] of Minor A or C of (Z) of P2 (or a Primary degree top)

But before we get there, let's look at what we're currently dealing with. The first chart above is the SPX 60 minute. The second chart is the SPX 5 minute chart for a closer look. The third chart represents the SPY Ending Diagonal.

On the 5 minute chart, I show that the market is tracing out micro waves [1] and [2] for subminuette iii of minuette (iii). If this count is correct, micro [2] dips down briefly tomorrow before it climbs higher to work on the meat of (iii). I show subminuette (iii) = 1.618*(i) at approximately 1215.

I have placed the alternate count labels that represent the Ending Diagonal scenario in gray. The third chart represents the SPY with the same Ending Diagonal scenario.

If the Ending Diagonal count is correct, I have subminuette a and b of minuette (v) tracing out. Subminuette b may need a little more work down just like [2] for the count option above, before a final subminuette c climbs higher to complete minuette (v). Minuette (v) cannot exceed the level represented by the Fib lines on the chart since wave 5 in ending diagonals cannot exceed wave 3s of that pattern. The equivalent level for the SPX would be 1212.89.

Both SPY and SPX levels assume that minuette (iv) completed for the Ending Diagonal option. Should price take out these levels, the ED option will be ruled out and my primary count will gain further strength.

I think by the end of this week we should have a very good clue.

4/9/10 - SPX EOD : TOP TARGET 1228-1242 [4/10/10 Update Count Adjustment]

[4/10/10 Update Count adjustment]

SPX MAIN OVERVIEW

A SIMPLIFIED LOOK (SPX 60 MINUTE)

SPX 30 MINUTE

Back in early March, I addressed a count in the chart above, which I have labeled as the alternate in gray. See post here. Somewhere along the way I abandoned the count, but frankly I think should be the preferred. However, at the moment both work and require a very similar 5 wave structure to complete so I won't relabel my counts. 

These two counts I believe are nearing completion. Both require a final wave "C"; the preferred a Minor C and the alternate a minuette (c). 

Though both are different in terms of degree, they both require a 5 wave impulsive structure. That should be a little easier to identify than a corrective mess. 

On my preferred count, minuettes (i) and (ii) are complete and we are working on a (iii). Of that (iii), subminuette i I believe is about to complete. A quick subminuette ii down should form before a iii of (iii) higher.  Refer to the 30 minute chart above for the details to this count.

For both counts, I'm looking at a potential target at the 1220 level (and possibly more as the title suggests). The 60 min chart shows where I placed the label for minute [v] at the mid channel, however, the structure may also target the upper channel line. 

Notice the gray Fibs on the 60 minute chart. It represents (a) of [y]. (c) of [y] gray = .618(a) of [y] at approx 1220.  So both counts are leading us to the same targets.

The later part of this post below provides additional reasons for the target levels.

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SPX PREFERRED COUNT DAILY CHART

SPX PREFERRED COUNT 30 MINUTE CHART

Looks like we made a new high today. Aside from shifting some of my alternate counts around (I know there are a few), my main count has remained consistent for quite some time now.

In summary, I have us working on the final stages of Minor C of (Z) targeting 1228-1242. Channels, trendlines, resistance areas are guiding price in this direction. 

Other reasons for this are:

1. Long term head and shoulders target (purple)

2. 61.8% retracement of the 2007-2009 bear decline

3. Minor C of (Z) = 1.618*Minor A of (Z)

4. Minute [v] of Minor C = minute [i] of Minor C

At this point, I won't call this the top of P2. I will say it may be a significant top that may lead to either a drastic pullback towards 1000 or a temporary pullback before reaching the 1228-1242 level. 

Near term, I believe we will break 1200 and initially target 1205-1215.  The triangle thrust target shows us near 1205. There is another inverted head and shoulders pattern developing. I mentioned this earlier today in the CiL. The target for this pattern is approximately 1215. See the 30 min chart above.

As my alternate counts and options show, the following are the potential market "top" choices:

1. (Z) of P2

2. Minor A of (Z)

3. Minute [iii] of A/C of (Z)

SPY ENDING DIAGONAL ALTERNATE COUNT

 The chart depicting the SPY in an Ending Diagonal is an option as well as it relates to the top charts.

SPX ALTERNATE COUNT #1 DAILY CHART

Should the top options fail, alternate#1 is my top choice. This would most certainly fit the price structure into the large wedge. We'll keep an eye on this one if price does not puncture the lower ascending wedge line. 

SPX ALTERNATE COUNT #2

As for alternate#2, please read last night's post for an explanation. If this option plays out, we should expect an expanded flat for minute [iv].

4/6/10 - A Road to 1228 Continued

This is just a follow up chart to my previous post.

A ROAD TO SPX 1228

Let me start out by saying this is not my preferred count at the moment but is one to think about if the market wants to climb higher and achieve a 61.8% retracement.

A wave 2 should try to at least retrace a proper 61.8% Fib . Admittedly many bears, myself included, were probably eager to see primary 3 (I really don't and hope we're wrong for all our sakes).

An attempt to hit 1228 (the 61.8% retracement from 1576 - 666) should be made by P2. I can't ignore the inverted H&S shoulders target near this same level. It is also another level of long term support and resistance (see bottom chart).

So if the market wants to target this level (I still say if because the market is facing other headwinds and long term support and resistance) the chart above shows one way it may try to do so.

Based on this chart, Minor A has topped or is very close to topping. A minor wave B is expected and if it retraces A by 61.8%, it perfectly backtests the long term bear trendline in green. Then minor wave C makes it's final ascent to complete Intermediate (Z) of P2 near the target level.

So keep an eye on this one as well. I would say if 1045 is breached on the downside, it would be safe to say this count would be out.