6/28/12 - EOD Update

Another one of those zany reversal days. The bulls managed to keep the green count alive and close the market over the 20 day SMA. The 50 day SMA is now at 1340.

5 Min

H/S

The right shoulder continues to play out.

Bear

The alternate option here is that wave 2 is not complete and one more push higher will be required to complete wave c of 2.

Bull

Similarity

Lets refer back to this chart again to see if it may shed some light as to where we are.

Note where I have red a back in November 2011. Notice the McClellan reading at the time (green asterisk) after completing step [1]. The McClellan found support near zero and then chopped sideways while forming b before heading lower to complete [2]. 

Now compare the current situation where I have the green asterisk. The McClellan once again bounced at the zero line and is in the process of completing b. We'll see.

6/21/12 - EOD Update

The red bear count certainly stepped up to the plate with today's decline.
The 60 min bull count I had been posting over the past few weeks has now been ruled out and some adjustments have been made.

15 Min 

The red count is in control at the moment.

Bear

Bull

This is the next best option for the bulls, however, this is only temporary as this count suggests a much larger corrective wave down is in progress.

Similiarity

I forgot to post this chart last night when I was looking at the McClellan reading. This suggests that [1] is complete and [2] is in progress. We'll see and continue to monitor the similarities.

6/19/12 - EOD Update

The market cleared the 50 day SMA today and is working on what appears to be an extended wave 3. Now whether that is wave 3 of c or 3 of 3 is to be determined.

The inverted h/s continues to play out and as highlighted on the bull option, is looking for a 1400 target.

Bull

Bear

For my bear option, I have removed the wave [4] possibility since there is a clear [4]-[1] overlap with the old count. The alternate that I had on this chart takes priority.

McClellan Osc

One thing I have not seen others mention is the 78% Fib retrace target at 1390. This would be something to expect even if one were to buy into the bear count here since we know that markets tend to retrace towards the 78% retracement zone out of a diagonal or wedge for this matter.

That is a solid move on the McClellan

Similarity

This chart continues to work. Note the last time the market hit point [1] where the McClellan reading was. We are just about there now. We'll see.

Ultra Bull Option

I posted this ultra bullish counts a few weeks ago. I haven't updated it since until the red line was breached, which happened today. So this is something to consider and watch once again.

6/15/12 - EOD Update

I'm glad when my gut is right every now and then. Yesterday, though it was still unclear where the market was going per the wave counts, I mentioned that my gut was saying the market was going to take a stab at the 50 day SMA near 1348.

Here are some things going for the bulls:

1. A close over the 13 week EMA
2. A break over the inverted head and shoulders neckline at 1335.
3. The daily MACD is heading for the centerline

Things going for the bears:

1. The 50 day SMA is just overhead
2. 1357.38 has yet to be breached.
3. The McClellan Oscillator shook off a -ve divergence and

10 Min 

The green option lines up with the bull chart below. The red lines up with the bear chart below. Blue is an alternate.

Bear

As I mentioned yesterday, we may have to consider the bear count having completed five waves down from April. However, until 1357.38 is breached, it could very well just be working on wave [4].

Bull

The bulls are trying to build some momentum here. A break of the inverted head and shoulders neckline is a start.

Fractal / Similarity

This chart continues to provide some guidance. Just a little over a week ago, I posted this chart guessing that wave [1] was starting to head for 1357. So far so good. Click here for that post.

Similarity and BAC Update

Just last weekend I posted an update to the similarity/fractal chart that I have been tracking. I mentioned that I was looking for a +ve divergence with the McClellan Oscillator.

With yesterday's close, we now have such a divergence. Lets now see if step [1] is in progress from here.

I marked 1357 as a possible target. We'll see...

Similiarity

BAC

BAC needs to get moving here if it wants to avoid forming a bear flag. We shall see....

The Similarity

On 5/2/12, I presented this chart for the first time. I was suspecting the similarity in the pattern to the previous year. The pattern appeared as though a triangle was forming after the run up off the Jun/Jul 2011 lows.

So far this has proved to be the correct assumption. If we continue to use this as a guide/should the market continue to repeat this pattern, perhaps this will help aid in determining where the market goes next.

The update on 5/16/12. Here it was again once it broke down out of the "fake" triangle on 5/17/12. I noted that the first bounce should be sold.

The update on 5/20/12.  Looking for yellow 2 to sell.

Here we are as of Friday. Sell yellow 2. Now, does yellow 3 chop down here near the 200 day SMA?

Lets keep an eye on NYMO and a possible divergence. Stay tuned....

5/20/12 - Weekend Charts

Add caption

Looks like a key week here coming up if the 80 week SMA has something to say about support.

Again, the target was met for the H/S. Should the market find a reason to bounce, we'll keep an eye on the neckline above near 137x in addition to the 20 day SMA near 1364.

As this chart implies, should a bounce come, it probably should be sold if this pattern repeats. This plays well with the H/S.

5/18/12 - EOD Update

The bears are still in control. Its very possible though that we may see a bounce next week.

Minor 4 Flat Option

With today's intraday print of 1291.98, the Minor 4 flat option has now been ruled out plain and simple. That is objective EW there.

Intermediate C Option

The bears are fully in control at the moment and this count implies some more pain is to come for the markets.

Ultra Bull Option

The bulls are not completely dead yet.I presented this ultra bullish count option yesterday and stated it would take effect once 1292 was breached.

Note the touch of the lower channel and tag of 50% retracement. We'll see...

NYMO

This fractal/similarity has been playing out. Lets see if the deep NYMO print marks the completion of label 1 yellow just like 8/8 last year. If this is playing out the same way, the first bounce probably should be should.

Cup and Handle

Looks like the handle wanted to push lower. If this is playing out, this correlates well with the ultra bull count.

Have a nice weekend all.

5/16/12 - EOD Update - Its Most Likely A Diagonal [11:29 PM Update]

[11:29 PM Update]

Remember this one?


[9:55 PM Update]

I wanted to add the bigger picture for the 60 min charts posted below at EOD.

Minor 4 Flat Option

Note the extension targets for minute [c] at 1.38 and 1.618 times. Pretty close.

Intermediate (B) Complete

However, if this is the correct count, this market is going down...


EOD Update

More chop again so I'm leaning more towards some form of diagonal/wedge here. What that diagonal/wedge represents depends upon whether the bear or Minor 4 flat option is playing out.

If this is not some type of diagonal, the bears are gonna flush the market down since there are now a quintuple nested 1s and 2s down.

SPX - 30 Min

 The multi-colored options are still in play. My 5 min chart posted last week still looks good. I have added a corrective option to that 5 min view. This corrective option would support the blue count option above.

SPX - 5 Min Corrective Option

SPX - 5 Min bear option

Fractal

There is no denying that a potential triangle may be forming up top here. However, as the chart above suggests, the last time a "triangle" appeared to be forming last year from Mar-May, we all know what happened.

The questions now is will the market attempt to make another lower high before heading lower?  We shall see.

Here are 2 potential triangle scenarios though, should this time be different, especially in the context of my longer term count.

5/4/12 - EOD Update

[9:40 PM Update]

SPX - 5 Min

No doubt that wave c/3 is extending and I think this is the best interpretation for now.

EOD Update

The bears decided to party on. Option black and pink are rolling along just fine and blue is now in jeopardy.

The bears managed to get a daily and weekly bear cross, however, the bulls defended the 13 week EMA.

SPX 30 Min

SPX - Daily

Lower BB as the target?

Daily Bull Option

Still looking to see what type of Minor 4 is in play here. The breakdown out of the red channel may be hinting that Minor 4 is in play.

Check back over the weekend because I have started to put together separate charts that break out the individual options from the chart above.

Minor 4 Tri Option

Here is one such option. Lets see if the lower TL holds.

Fractal/Similiarity

Here is a follow up to this chart I posted a few days ago. The H/S below would play in well with this.