1/12/11 - EOD Update

EOD Update

This is the KISS stair stepping chart. The market finally broke out of it's range/triangle/rectangle or whatever you want to call it.

This has been a pretty straightforward chart. Price has remained within the channel and continues to break out of consolidated ranges.

The most logical reasoning would be to assume that the market wants to target the upper channel. With a measured move for the tri/rectangle, we see a potential target of at least 1293 if the market shot straight up tomorrow. Obviously the time/price slope allows for a higher level if it takes more time and if it intends to tag the upper channel.

Option 1

This option again continues to count well. We saw the wave three thrust today as anticipated by this count.

If the count continues to prove correct, we should see a series of 3s and 4s to complete this leg somewhere between 1295-1300.

Here's the 5 min chart that goes with Option 1 above.

This is the 5 min chart that supports the break out of the ascending triangle. This is a little different from the Option 1 chart but not by much.

Here I count a five wave structure in the works that may only complete wave 1 of 5. I believe once the first five waves are complete, a wave 2 pullback should move price lower to approximately 1280 +/- 3 pts, the old triangle resistance level and a proper 50% retracement.

One thing that should provide caution for this run is the fib fan above.

The market is now at the 61.8% of the yellow fan. Price has respected this in the past so we must be mindful of this potential.

This may act as a pivot.

Still watching these Fib extension charts.

And this one too.

12/10/10 - EOD Update - SPX Target of 1300-1350 by 6/17/11? [Edited 12/12/10]

 [Edited 12/12/10- Added a Minor 4 Combo Corrective Option and a Long Term count below]

Did that get your attention? Not sure at the moment exactly where the market is heading but several of my charts below indicate that the market may intend to climb there. I'm not saying this is what I want and hope for (but of course I would welcome it if it happens) but just saying this is how I interpret the charts.

Though this rally may be long in the tooth, I'd say the larger trend remains bullish.

I am dumping these charts for you to decipher and will come back and address each one later if they don't make sense on their own.

I want to say that minute [i] of Minor 5 is nearing an end but there are still several options on the table. One such option is the Minor 4 Flat or combo corrective that I would say is the best alternate (from a slightly bearish perspective) at the moment.

SPX - Preferred [Edited 9:30 PM]

3 Min [Edited 9:30 PM]

This count implies that the market is still working on subminuette iii of minuette (v) of minute [i] of Minor 5. A Fib extension of subminuette iii to subminuette i looks to target 1245ish.

Weekly Bollinger Bands

Bull Channel

Cup and Handle

Minor 5 = Minor 1 at 1292.

Fib Fans

If the market shot straight up to the next fib fan above (62.8%), it would target approximately 1292. 

Reverse Fibonacci / Fib Confluences

The next Fib confluence targets approx 1290. The confluence is not as tight as 1232 but I believe it shouldn't be ignore when considering other factors pointing to this level. 

RUT

TZA

Minor 4 Flat Alternate Option

This option is still possible here as an expanded flat. If this option were to play out, the red Fib extensions would be the logical targets for minute [c].

Minor 4 Combo Corrective Option

Minor 2 took one month to complete. Minor 4 would take two months to complete and tag the lower channel if a flat/triangle combo formed. If this option were to play out, I believe 1200 would be the support level for the triangle.

Even this long term count supporting EWI's bearish count, implies that 1350 may be the intended target. You may have seen this chart a few times now as well.

11/5/10- EOD UPDATE [EDIT 11/7/10]

[EDIT 11/7/10]

SPX - FIBONACCI FANS

Here's an update to this fib fan I posted on the 16th. About 4 pts shy of that Fib extension. I added an additional 78.6% fan and the 2 and 2.618 fib extensions for further upside targets and intersections.

It will be interesting to see if we see a little resistance and pause at this 61.8% fand and pullback along it for minute [iv] before heading higher

[EDIT 11/6/10]

SPX WEEKLY

SPX MONTHLY

I know it's the weekend but wanted to keep these charts with the EOD post from yesterday.

Here is an update on that weekly chart I have been following. As anticipated, the market managed to close above the 200 week SMA as well at the 50 month SMA.

Notice that the monthly also had a MACD zero line cross. So far, all point upward.

Of course remaining over the 200 week for a few weeks would be required to confirm the trend here. 1193 is the level at the close.

SPX - PREFERRED BULL AND BEAR

I have updated my bull and bear daily chart to reflect the revised count from my previous post. The five waves up to the April high represent either Intermediate (1) or (A). The pullback to July is either Intermediate (2) or (A) or only Minor A of Intermediate (2) or (A).

SPX - CUP AND HANDLE FORMATION?

Does the above formation look familiar? See chart below.


I had been waiting for this leg to challenge the April high because I was thinking about this pattern forming. I think it is almost complete. The market needs to form the handle and that would coincide with the minute [iv] pullback I'm anticipating for the bull count.

The target for this move would be an astounding 1400. Before you say, no way in hell the market will ever go there, you have to remember many said, no way in hell was the market going to 666. I think panic goes in both directions.

Perhaps mom and pop finally dip their feet back in because they are tired of seeing their cash earn 0% while the market climbs higher. I wonder how mom and pop feel right now having taken their money out at the bottom while losing anywhere from 30-50% only to see the market regain 60% over the past year and a half and possibly more.

I know of a few who held out for so long and now want to put that money back to work. Others will be forced to hunt for yield.

For more info see Stockcharts' definition.



I post this chart again to reiterate what to look for should we see a substantial pullback.

10/16/10 - Fib Fans and Extensions: SPX to 1230

I have followed the blue fan for several weeks now and it has provided guidance, especially with the bottom fan. Tonight I added the yellow attempting to see what would happen if I connected the 2007 high and July 2010 low.

Notice how that trendline nearly connects all the reaction highs in 2007 and 2008 and the reaction lows for the first half of 2008.

From that the 38.2% Fib fan lined up with the April 2010 high perfectly. Most recently the market broke above that fan.

If these fans mean anything, 1230 is a likely target at the 50% fan. Combine this with a recent chart I posted using the reverse Fibonacci technique and the case for 123o is very compelling.

Here's that chart again below.


I have posted similar charts before using this technique. What I find compelling is that the confluences in the previous charts did not line up nearly as perfect as this one does.


Here's another chart we should not forget about. The inverted head and shoulders targets the same area.