Thursday, December 22, 2022

12/22/2022 - BTC Update

 I can't believe it has been almost a year since my last post. Hopefully I will find more time one day to post regularly again. 

So here is the latest count on BTC. Since my last post, my primary count indicated five waves were complete for wave [5] of {{1}}. With the pullback from the all time high, I counted five waves down to form wave (1). 

In the past year, BTC continued its decline in another five wave fashion [ (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) ] of higher degree to form what I have labeled as wave [A] for the primary count. If wave [A] is complete, we should anticipate a wave [B] bounce somewhere near the 27k-30k range. 

The alternate is that either wave [A] may have some more wiggle room below or a larger degree "w-x-y" corrective is playing out. I am not considering the latter so much at the moment unless I see seven waves down. 





Wednesday, January 26, 2022

1/26/2022 - BTC Update

In my last post, the primary count was that wave [5] was complete. Since then, BTC pulled back from the all time high and formed five waves down I know have labeled as was (1). 

The alternate, as previously highlighted is that wave [4] is still developing.

The bullish alternates are still in play but not as likely. 


BTC - Daily


Tuesday, November 2, 2021

11/2/21 - BTC Update

 Based on BTC futures' new closing high, I tweaked the count to account for two more bullish options for BTC. 

The primary option:  

I see a legitimate five wave count complete with the recent new closing high at 67060 on 10/20/21 to wrap up wave [5]*.  

* One concern I have with the count is how to account for the wave structure for wave [4]. Initially I labeled the move as a five wave structure, which it still clearly looks like. For now, I will treat it as a w-x-y corrective.

However, I suspect this leg is not complete so the two options below will help account for a push higher past 67060.

Option 1: Wave (1) of [5] has only completed off the June 2021 low.  

Option 2: A more bullish option is that we are still only in wave [3] with wave (3) of [3] yet to come.

Shouldn't be too long from now to see the signal. Either BTC breaks out higher or retreats deeper into the 30,000 - 63000 range to continue forming wave [4].

BTC - Daily





Thursday, September 30, 2021

9/30/21 -

Been a while.Some updates since my last post in May and April. 

 

Since my May update, I was looking for the completion of wave (3) blue. So that looks like that may be the case. The market consolidating up here and near the 200 day moving average (~4120) would be consistent with a wave (4) pullback. 

 This would also make for a Fib 38.2% retrace of wave (3) as well. So let's keep an eye on the wave structure between the 4545 high and the 200 day moving average. 

SPX Daily
 

Since my last BTC post I was looking for a wave (b) bounce for wave [4]. So far that has occurred and now appears that wave (c) is in progress. Wave (c) can take on any form so will just keep an eye on the range between the wave (b) high and wave (a) low for signs of further corrective consolidation to wrap up wave [4]. 


BTC Daily