Weekly Cup and Handle and August 2010 Analog

SPX Weekly

Remember this chart? Still trying to find it when I first posted this. Anyway a while ago I noted the bullish MACD configuration and that the rim (1370) may be a good target based on it.

Well here we are. Should the market find resistance here and a pull back occur, I'll be watching 1313 of 1258 depending upon the two patterns.

How about this chart? I've posted this chart several times in the past.

Though we can't rely solely on this chart to trade with, including EW alone, but when we combine it with everything else, it surely helps to keep us on the right track.

So if this pattern is repeating, perhaps the market is approaching point D like 11/2010, which also fits with the top of the rim. Will the market now dip back to the rising 50 day SMA, which is currently at 1292.

This would fit within the 1313-1258 zone as highlighted by the cup and handle and inverse head and shoulders pattern above.

Anyway, lets keep continue to keep track of these patterns as we go along and I promise to keep better track of when I post these myself.

SPX - Daily

Here's the StrategyDesk version of my primary count. You have all seen this chart several times now too.

I'm posting this one to highlight the simple Fib confluence near the 1375 zone. Notice the red and green Fibs and their associated extensions?

Also note, when I first posted this chart why I have always had issues with considering the 5/2011 decline as impulsive?

5/11/10 - SPX EOD [9:45 PM PST UPDATE: IWM]

 [9:45 PM PST UPDATE: IWM]

 IWM - WEEKLY

I posted a few IWM charts in the past which turned out pretty well, at least so far. Check them out here. This may be a good sign for the bears or my (Y) blue is off and should be labeled the way I have it for the SPX. 

Don't you just love how the old resistance line was pretty solid in anticipating a turn, not to mention the count, the Fibonacci ratio between wave C of  (Z) to A of (Z) and the head and shoulders target? Pretty darn amazing.

I guess from the bull perspective, one would have to hope that the neckline acts as support for a Minor B (if using the SPX count). 

We shall see.

[5 PM PST UPDATE: 3 MIN COUNT]

SPX - 3 MIN

[3 PM PST UPDATE: 3 WAVE STRUCTURE]

The above chart is why I think the drop from 1219 is still a 3-wave structure.

SPX - 60 MIN PREFERRED COUNT

SPX - 60 MIN PREFERRED COUNT OPTION

 SPX - 60 MIN BEAR OPTION

Here are my counts at the moment. I'm showing a possible ending to minute [i] of Minor C. As you can see on the top chart, I have my usual gray alternate labels as well. 

If the first count is correct, we may be working on minute [ii] down with a target at the open gap below. It fits in well with a 62% Fibonacci retracement.

If the alternate option plays out, I show that wave (iv) is not in yet and may be working out a larger flat towards 1143. 1143 = c=1.618*a. Refer to the second chart for the count on this scenario.