6/29/12 - EOD Update

The bulls certainly followed through with yesterday's EOD reversal. There are still several options on the table by way out counts so it is still hard to say for sure which count is in play near term.

Until the bulls can break 1422, the bear count is still a threat. Now that the month and quarter is over, we shall see what happens next week.

Bear

The primary option for the bear count is very close to becoming invalidated. 1363.46 would rule it out.
If 1363.46 is taken out next week, the alternate count turns into a larger complex wxy corrective for wave (2).

Bulls

The bulls reclaimed several MAs  and EMAs today and broke through the near term descending trendline. There is wide open space to the 4/2-5/1/12 TL above near 1390.

Diagonal

As proposed the other day, a much larger bounce should be expected out of a diagonal and so far this is what may be happening so we need to continue to monitor this.

Wave (y) could very well be in progress or wave b of (x) just completed today, with wave c down to come starting next week.

Daily Bollinger Bands

Weekly Cup and Handle

I posted this one several times now and the cup and handle pattern should be watched here. For those wondering how a follow through higher can be accounted for if the waves are not impulsing up, please see the LT corrective option I have had for some time now.

Long Term Corrective Option

5/18/12 - EOD Update

The bears are still in control. Its very possible though that we may see a bounce next week.

Minor 4 Flat Option

With today's intraday print of 1291.98, the Minor 4 flat option has now been ruled out plain and simple. That is objective EW there.

Intermediate C Option

The bears are fully in control at the moment and this count implies some more pain is to come for the markets.

Ultra Bull Option

The bulls are not completely dead yet.I presented this ultra bullish count option yesterday and stated it would take effect once 1292 was breached.

Note the touch of the lower channel and tag of 50% retracement. We'll see...

NYMO

This fractal/similarity has been playing out. Lets see if the deep NYMO print marks the completion of label 1 yellow just like 8/8 last year. If this is playing out the same way, the first bounce probably should be should.

Cup and Handle

Looks like the handle wanted to push lower. If this is playing out, this correlates well with the ultra bull count.

Have a nice weekend all.

4/10/12 - EOD Update [7:50 PM Update]

[7:50 PM Update]

SPX - Weekly

Lets not forget about this potential cup and handle and head and shoulders. I have been watching for a handle to form and 1340 could very well do it. Notice where the 13 week EMA currently resides?

Just noticed the other mini cup and handle and the fact that the handle bounced off the 13 week EMA.


[5:48 PM Update]

Here's the other version of my SPX daily chart. Note that the red and green channel intersect right around 1345.

Keep in mind there are still several options on the chart. Bulls need to defend the wave W/1 green high at  1292.66 to keep the bullish count alive.

EOD Update

SPX

RUT

DJI

BAC

Weekend Thoughts

SPX - 20 Year - 10/2009

I'm not sure if I posted this on the blog several years ago but this was something I was looking into back in October 2009. Three years later and look where we are now....

SPX - 20 Year - Today

With some adjustments to the chart, look at where we are now. Something more interesting are the Fibonacci years for each bubble.

The dot com bubble lasted approximately 8 years, the real estate bubble approximately 5 years and now the treasury bubble at its 3 year mark.

Does it mean anything? Who knows but its interesting nonetheless.

SPX - Weekly Cup and Handle

Ya'll have seen this chart now many times. Just sayin...

Weekly Cup and Handle and August 2010 Analog

SPX Weekly

Remember this chart? Still trying to find it when I first posted this. Anyway a while ago I noted the bullish MACD configuration and that the rim (1370) may be a good target based on it.

Well here we are. Should the market find resistance here and a pull back occur, I'll be watching 1313 of 1258 depending upon the two patterns.

How about this chart? I've posted this chart several times in the past.

Though we can't rely solely on this chart to trade with, including EW alone, but when we combine it with everything else, it surely helps to keep us on the right track.

So if this pattern is repeating, perhaps the market is approaching point D like 11/2010, which also fits with the top of the rim. Will the market now dip back to the rising 50 day SMA, which is currently at 1292.

This would fit within the 1313-1258 zone as highlighted by the cup and handle and inverse head and shoulders pattern above.

Anyway, lets keep continue to keep track of these patterns as we go along and I promise to keep better track of when I post these myself.

SPX - Daily

Here's the StrategyDesk version of my primary count. You have all seen this chart several times now too.

I'm posting this one to highlight the simple Fib confluence near the 1375 zone. Notice the red and green Fibs and their associated extensions?

Also note, when I first posted this chart why I have always had issues with considering the 5/2011 decline as impulsive?

Speculative Diamond Bottom and/or Cup and Handle

This past June I speculated that the market potentially was forming a diamond bottom. Whether or not the pattern was legit, a bottom had formed and a breakout occurred.

Recently I speculated that perhaps the same type of bottoming process was occurring and once again I'll call it a diamond bottom.

Should my most recent call for the pattern not play out, the above chart may be calling for a larger pattern to form over the next couple weeks.

I believe we will see a bounce this coming week. How high will help determine if the 7/13 pattern is correct (use the blue trendlines in the chart below) or if this new larger pattern may be playing.

I have also proposed this cup and handle pattern as well. The handle looks like it is complete, which also correlates well with my most recent 5 min corrective count.

I would assume if just using patterns here, there are a few (whether correctly identified and named or not) that point to this being a continuation pattern. We shall see here shortly.

12/29/10 -9:30 PM Update

9:30 PM Update

Cup and Handle

Sometimes I think I have too many charts because I just never get around to viewing them all. Jim in comments tonight provided a link to his count and got me to look at the overall count again.

So I post this cup and handle chart once again. If Jim's count is correct, and based on the daily chart above, it certainly "looks" right, he may be on to something and it fits with this cup and handle chart.

Notice the green Fibs. Those represent extensions of Minor 1 green.

Now look at the .618 extension at 1246. That may be the target for minute [iv].

Of course a proper 38% Fib retracement of that minute [iii] would lead the market to approximately 1228, which is a very significant support level (for those who have forgotten, this marks the 62% retracement of the entire Great Recession decline).



You have all seen this Fibonacci Confluence chart before using Fib extensions and the Reverse Fib Technique to project pivot points.


Look at this longer term one, which also shows a very tight confluence at 1300.



The market has cleared the 1257 level and again appears to be targeting the 61.8% Fib Fan at, you guessed it, 1290ish.


Haven't posted a Eur count in a bit but this one may work. Look at the bullish looking MACD.

I don't show the Fib extensions on the chart but Y=.618*W at the top of the green channel and of course Y=W where I have it placed on the chart.

EOD Update

I still believe the market intends to tag the 1270 and possibly 1290 level. Until 1246 gives, I'm going to assume it continues to work higher.

There are a few things near term to be mindful off, which may be signifying a larger correction is looming, but again, until 1246 is breached, we won't worry about just quite yet.

Option 1

This option is still my primary, though it is in jeopardy. I also made a slight adjustment to the count.

Notice where I point out a potential similarity in pattern?

I'm banking on this count to complete micro 2 of subminutte v right at the MACD trendline support before bouncing to start micro 3 up.

Extended 5th Option

This extended 5th option is still on the table as well. This option implies that a wave 4 blue pullback may be in store. Looking for a proper Fib retracement if this is the case. 1246.73 would be the max pullback though to avoid a 4-1 overlap.

Subminuette iv Flat Option

This option is looking for a wave iv pullback as well. The max here is 1243.63.

Minor 4 Option

Just a reminder of this option and this is my most bearish option near term. I do have more bearish options, but until the bears show up to the party, it's not worth posting at the moment.

However, if your interested in seeing my other thoughts, just click on the links at the top of the blog.

12/10/10 - EOD Update - SPX Target of 1300-1350 by 6/17/11? [Edited 12/12/10]

 [Edited 12/12/10- Added a Minor 4 Combo Corrective Option and a Long Term count below]

Did that get your attention? Not sure at the moment exactly where the market is heading but several of my charts below indicate that the market may intend to climb there. I'm not saying this is what I want and hope for (but of course I would welcome it if it happens) but just saying this is how I interpret the charts.

Though this rally may be long in the tooth, I'd say the larger trend remains bullish.

I am dumping these charts for you to decipher and will come back and address each one later if they don't make sense on their own.

I want to say that minute [i] of Minor 5 is nearing an end but there are still several options on the table. One such option is the Minor 4 Flat or combo corrective that I would say is the best alternate (from a slightly bearish perspective) at the moment.

SPX - Preferred [Edited 9:30 PM]

3 Min [Edited 9:30 PM]

This count implies that the market is still working on subminuette iii of minuette (v) of minute [i] of Minor 5. A Fib extension of subminuette iii to subminuette i looks to target 1245ish.

Weekly Bollinger Bands

Bull Channel

Cup and Handle

Minor 5 = Minor 1 at 1292.

Fib Fans

If the market shot straight up to the next fib fan above (62.8%), it would target approximately 1292. 

Reverse Fibonacci / Fib Confluences

The next Fib confluence targets approx 1290. The confluence is not as tight as 1232 but I believe it shouldn't be ignore when considering other factors pointing to this level. 

RUT

TZA

Minor 4 Flat Alternate Option

This option is still possible here as an expanded flat. If this option were to play out, the red Fib extensions would be the logical targets for minute [c].

Minor 4 Combo Corrective Option

Minor 2 took one month to complete. Minor 4 would take two months to complete and tag the lower channel if a flat/triangle combo formed. If this option were to play out, I believe 1200 would be the support level for the triangle.

Even this long term count supporting EWI's bearish count, implies that 1350 may be the intended target. You may have seen this chart a few times now as well.

12/1/10 - 1:43 PM Update

1:43 PM Update

Looks like option 1b and 1c are front and center. I think I'm 50/50 on both counts with maybe a slight advantage to 1b since we closed above 1200.

The main problem I have with option 1b is trying to count a clear impulse off the 11/30 low. I came up with a possible squiggle count earlier in the chat room but that depends if an expanding leading diagonal is considered an EW pattern in the wave 1 position.

I'll post charts later


7:04 AM Update

Opt 1c

[C]=1.618*[A] marking a possible turn point.

Pre Market

Opt 1c

Though we are set to rally at the open, keep this count option in mind. 1200 is the key on the upside. I believe market participants want to see a close above this level. Let's see if she does.

Opt 1b

Here's an alternate version to this count last night that would support a reason to be cautious.

Cup and Handle

I posted this chart back on 11/5/10. Not sure if the handle needs to extend lower but if the market clears the top of the cup with decent volume, that may be the signal. Click on the link to the previous post if you want to read more on this formation.