Saturday, October 30, 2010

MY NEW PREFERRED COUNT

I don't know why I have waited this long to really take a crack at counting the waves off the March 2009 low. I decided to do it tonight because LM posed a question on Danerics blog tonight that poked a hole in the bull count I had maintained for the rally of the March 2009 low so it got me to really drill down at the 15 and 60 min levels.

As you will see below, this is my best effort at the moment, and I think it is very legitimate. I obviously welcome all feedback to ensure I had not missed anything.

SPX LONG TERM

I believe you first saw the above chart from my "There Is No Primary Wave 3 Bear" post earlier this month (Please read the post for an explanation of the Fib relationships) . This is my long term primary view. This should help provide some context with how I view the daily count below.


SPX LONG TERM CLOSEUP

Line charts are nice to view to help filter out some of the noise. As in previous posts, I have mentioned that this does "look" like 5 waves up off the March 2009 low.

But what does it represent? Intermediate (1) or (A)? Who cares, because we know with basic EW, 5 in one direction requires 3 in a countertrend direction before another 5 continues with the previous/prevailing trend.

So as the above chart shows, we may have completed (1) /(A) in April and completed (2)/(B) in July and may be working on (3)/(B) now. The alternate is that we are working on a large flat for (2)/(B).

SPX DAILY BULL COUNT

Here is the breakdown of the daily count. I will work on a series of 60 min charts to provide more details of the subwaves when I get a chance. I have tried to include as many reaction highs and lows to allow one to determine where each wave is located.

I honestly and sincerely welcome all feedback (respectful feedback hopefully) on this count.
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