Monday, October 4, 2010

10/4/10 - EOD Update#3

EOD Update#3
SPX - 10 MIN

Here's a squiggle view of the count off the 1157.16 top. If you're following the triangle, subwave [C] was put in at today's low.

If following the minuette (ii) in progress count, today's low may have been wave A or or W of minuette (ii) and the bounce is the beginning of the associated wave B or X bounce before heading lower.

EOD Update#2

Because the daily MACD rolled over today, this is the count I'm watching between the triangle count as posted below. Odds will increase greatly that the above count is in play if 1122.79 is breached, which rules out the wave 4 triangle.

What would be the downside targets if this is minuette (ii) in progress? The following Fib targets would be the first place to spot this; 1112 (38.2%), 1098 (50%) and 1084 (62%).

If playing the triangle breakout long, today's test of the 1131 support level would have been a good entry point, with a stop below this level . Subwave [E] should not retrace below [C].

EOD Update#1

SPX - 60 Min Triangle Option

The bears have to watch it. This option is definitely still on the table.

Though my reverse Fibonacci target was not met, subwave [C] hit just a tad over the 62% retracement of subwave [B]. The market found support at 1131 again and now most likely is working it's way back up for subwave [D].

Though the 60 min MACD rolled over today, it still has a trendline support (green) coming up.

I have subwave [E] falling right around Thurs/Fri, just in time for the jobs report. Hmm.

Now on the flip side, I'm still watching for a minuette (ii) pullback and a daily MACD sell signal launched today so that is something we still need to be mindful off. I'll post counts later.

12:15 PM Update

It appears if we hold the 1131 support level, it would be a very nice end to subwave [C] of the wave 4 triangle count. It can very well be the end of a wave 4 flat (running) too.

If minuette (ii) is truly in progress, then I'd like to see 1131 fall into the close and then break 1122.79 in the next day or two.

10:00 AM Update

One must keep in mind that the triangle count is still not dead yet either. Unless the subwave [A] low of 1122.79 is taken out, this is still a count to watch.

9:00 AM Update

As I said, that daily MACD is one to watch. We have a daily sell signal. Here's my main chart I've been also watching, while waiting for minuette (ii) to begin.

I'm going to say the odds at this point that my long awaited minuette (ii) down is in progress as posted here last week.

Please read that post as I am also keeping in mind a larger wave 4 flat as a possibility and 1131 needs to be taken out. It may provide strong support.


I won't have access to StrategyDesk charts today. Let's see if my reverse Fib technique works out as posted here last week.

Let's see if 1136.40 holds. At this point, subwave [C] has also retraced [B] by 62%.

The only issue now to watch out for is the daily MACD. I can't confirm if we have a sell signal in place with today's sell off.