Wednesday, March 17, 2010


Let me start out by saying this is not my preferred count at the moment but is one to think about if the market wants to climb higher and achieve a 61.8% retracement.

A wave 2 should try to at least retrace a proper 61.8% Fib . Admittedly many bears, myself included, were probably eager to see primary 3 (I really don't and hope we're wrong for all our sakes).

An attempt to hit 1228 (the 61.8% retracement from 1576 - 666) should be made by P2. I can't ignore the inverted H&S shoulders target near this same level. It is also another level of long term support and resistance (see bottom chart).

So if the market wants to target this level (I still say if because the market is facing other headwinds and long term support and resistance) the chart above shows one way it may try to do so.

Based on this chart, Minor A has topped or is very close to topping. A minor wave B is expected and if it retraces A by 61.8%, it perfectly backtests the long term bear trendline in green. Then minor wave C makes it's final ascent to complete Intermediate (Z) of P2 near the target level.

So keep an eye on this one as well. I would say if 1045 is breached on the downside, it would be safe to say this count would be out.

1 comment:

  1. Hi Grand. This idea is what I was saying last week as well in I was a bit premature in it, obviously, but I think the concept is correct. Our counts differ as to where you end (Y), but to me, W of (Z) was a clear a-b-c and NOT a straight impulse, therefore Y should be the same.