Friday, October 30, 2009

10/30 PM Update: SPX, DOW

SPX 60 Min

SPX 15 Min

Dow H&S

The counts are looking good here. Price has remained within the trend channels so I am going to assume that this is a good count.

I will admit that I moved minuette (ii) over because it was mentioned that alternation would make more sense between (ii) [flat] and (iv)[zigzag]. This adjustment does not change the overall count.

At this time, the primary count is that we are working on minute [i] down. At the close, we were working on subminuette iv of minuette (v). Subminuette iv appeared to be tracing out a triangle.

If so, a final subminuette v is required lower to complete minuette (v). This should touch the lower trendline somewhere near the 1020s. This would make minuette (v) approximately 1.618 x minuette (i).

I previously mentioned that this would be a reasonable level to draw minute [i]. This goes hand in hand with the projection I made with the Dow head and shoulders formation which also applies with SPX. See below for the H&S projection.

Here's an updated look at the Dow I posted on 10/26. I was anticipating a trend change that would draw a leg down to the 9630 level. This would complete a minute [i] wave and it would be followed by a minute [ii] wave to form a right shoulder.

The bearish alternate is still in play. I have labeled the count in red as "Alt".

So far so good. What a week for the bears.

I'll try to post more later on in the weekend. Have a great weekend.


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