Friday, November 13, 2009

11/13 - SPX PM UPDATE

SPX Count


SPX Histograms


SPX Alternate Bearish Count


Just gonna put this out for now as a potential bearish count setup heading into next week.

If the count is correct, subminuette 'c' of minuette (ii) would equal subminuette 'a' at approximately 1101. This would complete minuette (ii) at roughly a 78.6% retracement off the 1105 high.

Notice I also included subminuette 'c' = .618x subminuette 'a' at 1096 as a possibility as well. That would make minuette (ii) approximately a 50% retracement off the 1105 high.

The second chart is the histogram chart. Today's action printed yet another lower bar, further indicating a potential cross is in the works.

Since yesterday MACD reversed course slightly and may head a little higher. This may fit perfectly with the completion of minuette (ii) if MACD intends to touch the upper descending trendline before reversing lower in a minuette (iii).

Yesterday I commented on a possible shooting star confirmation. I like Cobra's take on the bearish reversal evening star formation even better. (Read here for more on the evening star). Either way, both mean the same potential, a reversal is in store.

The third chart is an alternate bearish count on the 1-2 setup. I say this count would work as well. Notice that where I have minuette (ii) labeled, price retraced an almost perfect 61.8% retracement from the 1105 high.

Of course next week is OPEX so we'll have to see how this may affect things. One thing to point out is that 1100 is still holding.

Have a great weekend!

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