Tuesday, November 3, 2009

11/3 - SPX Squiggles

15 Min

10 Min

5 Min

EDIT: Just wanted to add that the 10 day MA = 1057 and 50 day MA = 1052.

This is a bearish squiggle count, which I think counts well.

It can either be a zigzag (a-b-c) or double ZZ (w-x-y) for minute [ii] or (a) of minute [ii] or possibly just a wave 2 of a series of nested 1-2s. Either way they both mean the same thing at this point. For the sake of simplicity, I will refer to it as an a-b-c zigzag.

On all charts above, I have placed the Fibonacci scale for waves a blue, wave i (red) of c and wave i (green) of v(red) of c.

Notice on the 5 min chart, there is practically a Fibonacci confluence at 1047. The confluence occurs where:

- wave v(red) of c = 1.618 x wave i(red) of c AND
- wave v(green) of wave v(red) of c = 1.618 x wave i(green) of wave v(red) of c

If price were to retrace to this level, it would breach the upper trend channel (blue) ever so slightly but still remain below the purple trendline (8/17, 9/2 and 10/2 lower channel line). So this is one possible target.

Now take a look at the 15 min chart. If wave c(blue) = 1.618 x wave a(blue), price would tap 1057. 1057 would also coincide with the 38.2% retracement of price from the 1101 high to 1029 low.

Just some things to think about.


  1. Thanks, great food for thought. Whatever this wave is, the next one after this could be a doozy.