Tuesday, November 3, 2009

11/3 - SPX UPDATE and Weekly MACD

60 min

15 min

Weekly MACD

Weekly MACD Closeup

Trying to keep this simple. Though today's action did not make things decisively clear, we did rule out one of the three options I proposed yesterday, Option 1. The minuette (v) ED should be ruled out.

At this point, I say we are either working on minute [ii] or one more 1-2 structure.

Things to consider for the nested 1-2 counts:

1. Price closed today within the blue upper trend channel drawn from minuettes (ii) and (iv) and therefore maintaining the channel.
2. Price closed below the purple trendline (8/17, 9/2 and 10/2 lows) on a backtest.
3. Price tagged the 23.6% retracement from the 1101 - 1029 range.
4. Weekly MACD is getting very close to a cross
5. If price breaks below 1020, the nested 1-2s become the preferred count

Things to consider for the minute [ii] count:

1. I'll be watching to see if it breaks the trendlines mentioned in 1 and 2 above.
2. If price takes out 1052.81, minute [ii] is most likely in progress

Whether we are in minute [ii] or continuing to build on the 1-2s, I have a feeling that a decisive move lower is in our near future. But that's just a hunch. We will see...


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