Thursday, November 5, 2009

11/5 - DOW : 61.8% Fibonacci Fan Revisited

Dow 10/15/09


Dow 11/5/09



Dow 11/5/09: A Closer Look


This will be my last post until next Monday since I will not have access to my charting software.

I posted the top chart on 10/15. (See post) . At the time, wave C appeared to count complete and channeled perfectly with wave 5 of C touching the top channel line as expected.

I plotted Fibonacci Fan lines and pointed out the 61.8% retracement level as a possible target.

Here we are 3 weeks later with an updated chart. Price kissed the 61.8% line and bounced off it and sold off towards the lower trend channel. In doing so, it also broke through the long term trendline from March to July.

From a bearish count, this leg down is considered to be a minute [i] of P3. Price has since retraced the move lower and is currently working on a minute [ii] wave.

This retracement is coinciding with a backtest of the long term March-July trendline and a second attempt at touching the 61.8% Fibonacci Fan line.

The question now is will these two different levels (long term trendline and 61.8% retracment line) hold price back?

I guess we may just get that answer tomorrow. GL to all and have a great weekend!

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