Wednesday, March 31, 2010

3/31/10 - SPX : Minute [iii] in Progress?

I have to admit I had been thinking of this count but did not give it too much thought but will say, Nate's Market Analysis inspired me to pose this count as a real alternative.

This count may work out well as the end of minute [iii] would take price either towards the center channel line or the top channel line prior to another pullback for a true minute [iv], which may be sharp if it were to alternate with minute [ii].

A larger wave 4 would bring more consolidation to the market to relieve any overbought pressure before it makes one final climb towards 1220ish or so. So I'm putting this count out there as well as a pretty good one to watch.

Be aware the degrees are different than my preferred count.


  1. scw here-- tried to respond on the CiL but must have lost my aa-- this count would certainly throw a lot of investors... would do a good job a separating the most people from their money-- was thinking about this in terms of wxyxz-- but this is far cleaner... nice work

  2. Hi Grand,

    Great job. I was coming to a similar conclusion, based on:

    1. The first part of that wave just doesn't count as an impulse - unless you count it as a load of 1-2-i-ii's.

    2. Although daily indicators are looking bad, most hourly indicators recently broke above / close to previous highs, removing most negative divergence. It was either a blow-off top (but we should have crashed by now) or a iii-of-3 and we are due a load of 4-5's to rebuild the negative divergence.

    Otoh, I think this market has been a 'v. tough to count' one. Lots of different counts, all low probability, and lots of surprises. So am playing this one cautiously. Expect a few fakes first.

    Good luck with it! Mk

  3. SCW and Mk,
    thk u both for reading and the feedback. I completely agree with both ur comments.

    Nate is a great squiggle counter so i hope u two are visiting his blog as well. This one will definitely be an interesting one to watch.

    As always thk u again for the feedback and perspectives!