Thursday, March 4, 2010

3/4/10 - SPX EOD [8:55 PM Update]

[8:55 PM Update]
Preferred Count


Well I was able to get out of my prior engagement and had a chance to look at the charts.

I have updated a few things on my top chart and I really like the count enough to make it my preferred. What stands out the most to me is the extremely heavy Fibonacci confluence at 1127-29.

I try to look for this all the time but have not run into one where the levels are so tight and so abundant. Of course in the end this could mean nothing but I would think there may be some validity to this.

On that top chart, I also placed some alternate labels. Whether you go with the alternate labels or my preferred, they both lead to the same place.

One additional alternate label to be mindful of is the one indicating that the turn has already occurred and the structure from the 1125 top is a wave i down.

The following is a summary of the Fib relationships and the case for the 1127-29 top/turn:

- Red Fib = v = 1.618 i
- Blue Fib = v=.618 i
- Green Fib = v(red) =.618 of wave o-iii (red)
- Gray Fib = 78.6% retracement from 1150 -1044
- Gold = v (black) =1.618 x o-iii (black)
- The red trendline resistance intersects the Fib confluence
- The triangle target intersects the Fib confluence and trendline resistance
- The long term bear trendline may provide resistance in the same range

The second chart is an alternate count. I'm not too fond of this count. But since I have been tracking, I figured I'd put it up for now.

This count also indicates price reaching 1127-29 as above. The one major difference here is if y=w, 1152 may be in the works.

I cannot post a chart tonight since I do not have access to my charting software. However from what I gather into the close, not much has changed. There are two counts that I'm watching and at the moment I still do not prefer anyone over the other.

Both imply a turn near the same level, one just may get there sooner than the other. Please refer to the link above for those counts as well as the posts earlier today.


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