Friday, March 5, 2010

3/5/10 - SPX and RUT EOD [7PM Update]

Thanks Blankfiend. This chart is related to the comments below.
Count 1

Count 1 15 Min

Count 2


Well there goes that Fib theory. Not to fret, there is still some hope for the bears. Both counts still work.

For those unfamiliar with EW, wave 2 is no longer considered a wave 2 when it retraces beyond the start of wave 1. In this case, wave 1 started at 1150.45 so until price takes it out, the bounce off 1044.50 may still be considered a wave 2.

Ninety percent retracements for wave 2s are not uncommon either. Wave 2s are supposed to be sharp and fast. Granted I would consider the probability of it being a wave 2 diminishes once above 78%.

So onto the charts above. Price is approaching the 90% retracement from the 1150.45 high thru 1044.50 low. For both counts, a final 5th wave appears to be in progress.

Price is also coming up on the broken trendline from 978.51-992.25.

Notice the Fib relationships above as well at 1154. More possible targets. Now if price breaches 1150.45, wave [ii] is out the window and P2 may have to be re-examined.

The final chart is that of the RUT. It appears to be in a similar situation but I have it as completing P2. Looking for a final fifth wave.

I'll post an alternative count should 1150.45 be taken out next week over the weekend.


  1. Grand, I'm confused about your RUT count. I am NOT trying to be critical, but have pondered a count similar to what you are suggesting in the past, and could not make it fly.

    Are you suggesting that (Y) was a triangle? Are you suggesting (Y) was an ED? How did you come up with your upper red channel line?

    In either case (ED or triangle), the true trendlines connecting A-C and B-D form too much of a parallel channel for my taste.

  2. Blankfiend,

    thnks for the feedback as always. yes. sorry for the confusion. i am actually trying to portray (y) as an ED. the upper red contracting trendline was drawn with C and E (what was E as of yesterday's close).

    I should have labeled the subwaves 1-5 (sorry i know that has added to the confusion).

    though subtle, the ac and de lines do converge. i have added the purple line (which is parallel to the de line to show that the upper trendline in red is converging)

    i posted an update chart above

  3. Hi Grand,
    Hope you don't mind, but I put up a post about your very interesting ED count for the Russell. Did you realize that, counting (Y) as you do, we are almost EXACTLY where (Y) = (W) of Primary [2]?