Tuesday, August 24, 2010

8/24/10

7:05 AM
Here is an update to my 7:40 AM count yesterday. This is my preferred count along with the alternate in gray. This count was looking for a wave 3 down yesterday and sure enough we got it. Notice the head and shoulders below? I posted that last week and it looks like we are seeing some follow through today.

The H/S target and the count above is looking for a re-test of the 1010 low. It doesn't have to get there though because 1050 may provide some support and could mark the end of the pullback, given the alternate wave count. This would also draw the 2nd right shoulder of the inverted head and shoulders pattern.

7:05 AM

The channels may be telling in whether 1050 holds. We are there now at the bottom of the longer term channel in yellow.

7:30 AM
 Here is another way to view my preferred. The Fibonacci extension there represents [y] to [w]. A .618 ratio takes the market to 1018 approximately, however, the count, as represented above shows that [y] may be wrapping up near 1050. We'll see...

8:00 AM
 Remember this chart? Notice the MACD trendline (second one). We are pretty much there and the structure is right about where it should be to mimic the first one. This may fit in with the case for 1050 support. Again, we'll see...
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