Tuesday, August 10, 2010

9/10/10 - 12:30 PM Update

I didn't post anything last night because there wasn't anything worth pointing out. Today may be the day, however, in determining where we go.

As of this writing, the e-mini is down 10 pts and testing the lower ascending trendline. I have posted the above chart a few times now and noticed that prior to the breakout after P5, we saw a little dip, I have labeled as T1. That low was put in on 7/8/09 and retraced the 666 low to peak just over 23.6%.

So if we see a repeat in this pattern we may see a pullback to the 1090-1080 of the most recent rise off the 7/1/10 bottom.

But of course the flip side to that is the market reacts positively to the Fed meeting and breaks out above the inverted head and shoulders.

6:45 AM Update
And this is how it may be playing out with the optional count I have posted previously. Notice the alternate labels in gray. Retracement targets are the same as above. We'll see...

10:30 AM Update
 The Daily MACD is looking a little bearish. This diagonal (ending/leading) may be coming to an end. We are under the 200 SMA. The 50 sits at 1087. Hmmm..Maybe consistent with the first chart above.

 Many ways to look at it.

Weekly Bullish Option
Here's an update to another way I have counted these waves up. More importantly though for the moment, look at the MACD. The last few times I pointed this out, the Histograms continued to trend positive.

Should the market close green this week, I believe the weekly cross and centerline crossover will occur.

 Did ya think I forgot all about my bear count? Here it is for good measure.
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