Tuesday, August 3, 2010

SPX - 100 AND 200 WEEK MAs

Here's a comparison of the 100 and 200 weekly SMA over the past decade. The support and resistance levels have been noted.

Something I find interesting (and may have no bearing on anything) is the price action during Jan 08 - Aug 08 as the market bounced in between the 100 and 200 as they were still rising. With each backtest of the MAs, the market was rejected each time until it crashed from Sept - Dec 08.

Now the market has climbed out of the abyss and broke through the 100 in Nov 08, backtested it and found support there.

The market is now sandwiched in between the MAs again. The 200 has been challenged once and has provided resistance. However the market has found support at the 100 a few times now.  Currently, the 200 sits at 1210.

Should the market rally above, will we see the inverse (not necessarily a melt up) of the Jan 08-Aug 08 period?

The market rally assumption comes from the current MACD configuration since it is looking pretty bullish. A signal cross and centerline crossover is imminent.

A few more weeks may be telling...
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