Tuesday, September 21, 2010

9/21/10 (EOD Update And People Say EW Does Not Work?)

(EOD Update)


30 MIN

Well here it is. 1148.59. Not bad, pretty darn close to 1150.

As posted at 10:07 AM below, I was expecting a pop for 5 and then a selloff / pullback into the close. It's as if the market read my blog (ya right!).

I hope some folks who have their doubts about EW may have found this useful at this smaller degree. With that being said, I'm not saying EW is the end-all be-all tool but something else to add to your tool belt.

Now for the charts above. As far as I can tell, this impulse up looks like it is mostly complete. I have adjusted the labels and degrees to best fit what I have counted.

With that being said, I'm going to leave room for another (yes another) possible wave 4 (degree unspecified) if we are still in the final fifth up. But I'm not really banking on this.

As I also posted early, the hourly MACD was looking a little bearish, which by the close provided a sell signal.

Expanding Option

I guess this would be considered my option number 6. This one is for da bears.

I posted this on Monday during my chart blitz. No changes were made with the trendlines. Interesting that we rallied to the middle trendline and sold into the close. Hmmmm..Of course the bullish argument is that we just hit the upper channel of a new ascending channel.

Gotta run for a bit.

(11:40 AM Update)

1150 here we come. 5=1 at 1150.

(11:25 AM Update)

11:25 AM - 10 MIN POST FOMC
Boo Ya Baby! Now let's see how high this 5 goes. I have also adjusted the degree labelings to reflect what my suspicions were this AM.

(10:47 AM Update)

10:47 AM - 3 MIN
 I see a wedgie forming.

(10:07 AM Update)


Ok. This is how I see it. We are sloshing around in a wave 4 to complete the final 5th for minuette (i) and the market is 1hr away from the FOMC minutes.

The way I see this playing out is that the market pops on the news or lack thereof to complete this final 5th. Then as usual, we see a selloff/pullback after the fact.

A break below 1131.47 will void this scenario. If this is right, go ahead and tell people you saw it here first. If I'm wrong, well then I'm wrong ;). We'll see in an hr or two!

8:30 am - 5 MIN
So far we have a very small scale trend change. That may turn out to be a larger one if minuette (i) is complete. As posted last night, I was expecting this pullback.

One thing I may add is that this pullback could still be yet another wave 4 of some degree. That is why I added the [A],[B] and [C] labels for the pullback as an option. [C]=[A] at 1138 and 1.618*[A] at 1136. We'll see.

I'm thinking most likely not though since the hourly MACD is heading lower and showing a bearish configuration along with a negative divergence.

All eyes and ears are on the FOMC meeting minutes today and the 1131 level.

Here are some MA levels for possible support should 1131 break. On another note, the battle of the head and shoulders resulted in the inverse ruling. We can also call it a diamond bottom reversal and possibly a 'W' bottom. The one major caveat to all this is the lack of volume on the breakout so be careful.
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