Wednesday, September 22, 2010

9/22/10 (EOD UPDATE)


If my 9:45 AM call is to pan out, wave (5) must be considered truncated. See below for the updated count.


I have the diagonal labeled as 5 waves down and a breakout of the diagonal as a possible double zigzag currently working on it's final wave (Y). (Y) may not hit the 78.6% retrace and only target 62%. We'll have to see.

(9:45 AM UPDATE)

9:45 AM - 5 MIN
Ok. Let's see if we can make it 2 in-a-row. This is my call for today. 

That leading diagonal is back on the table. I say we hit 1130 in either the LD or the double ZZ ([W]-[X]-[Y]). We then bounce sharply, typically 78.6% out of a LD, which backtests that lower channel. 
We fail the backtest and work our way back down in a wave 3 or C. 

If this move down was only a wave 4, then the final 5th will finally be upon us but I'm going with the LD for either a wave A or 1 down of minuette (ii).

This is gonna be my last post for the day since I have to attend several meetings. We'll see what happens at the end of the day. Good Luck!

(9:30 AM UPDATE)

9:30 AM - 5 MIN
A slight update. I just relabeled the alternate corrective count to a [W]-[X]-[Y]. Know the difference? An [A]-[B]-[C] = 5-3-5 whereas a [W]-[X]-[Y] = [5-3-5] -[a-b-c]-[5-3-5].

I'm thinking the 1130 level is going to come into play as [Y] completes there and the mid channel. We'll see. So basically, I'm saying that the odds are increasing again that this may be corrective after all.

9:30 AM - 5 MIN
Wedgie may be back on again as well.

(9:15 AM UPDATE)

9:15 AM - 5 MIN
I'm not going to post my 1 min chart but it appears at that degree, the waves since 1148.59 are very overlapping, which leads me to believe that this may be more corrective in nature rather than impulsive. 

Given that, I have added the alternate corrective labels but will still not ignore the hourly MACD sell signal. If the corrective label is correct, 1130 (green line) may provide some support and [C]=[A] right in that area.


8:53 AM - EUR/USD
Remember this post?That proved to be telling. 

Here's an update to that count. It is in a wave 3 or C and I'm thinking it is only on wave 3 of 3 or C. 

A typical fib extension of 1/A is equality and that would place the EUR/USD near 1.40.

Once again, notice the positive MACD divergence. What does that tell me? It tells me to keep in mind that this may not just be a 3 wave corrective move up, at least not at the degree to which I have it labeled. It's telling me that we may end up seeing 5 waves up of a larger impulse or 5 waves up for just a wave A. I'll keep you posted.

(8:26 AM UPDATE)

8:26 AM - 5 MIN
The market is showing her hand a little more. I'm taking the wedge off the table. It's most likely an impulse down in the works for minuette (ii).

(8:00 AM UPDATE)
8:00 AM - 30 MIN

8:00 AM - 5 MIN

So far this AM the market is moving as expected. The hourly MACD is in sell mode and the lower channel (30 min) was breached.

The 5 min chart shows two potential counts. Either we are in a leading diagonal to start off minuette (ii) or this is yet another wave 4 as speculated last night (even though with low odds).


The daily MACD histograms are starting to trend lower possibly signaling a daily sell. However, my thoughts are that the green rising trendline will provide support yet again where minuette (ii) completes. If it doesn't, something else is going on.  So let's keep an eye on this.
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