Thursday, September 23, 2010

9/23/10 (EOD Update)

 (EOD Update)

I'm going to stick to my EOD post #2 from yesterday and assume that we are in minuette (ii). The daily MACD is setting up a sell signal. 

As the 5 min chart above shows, we may have completed wave (b) of b for a potential flat or zigzag. So with this count, we may see a little rally and then further selling to form wave c of (ii) and the daily MACD sell signal triggers.

I'm guessing (ii) may find support at the MACD trendline support. 

One additional alternate I will add here is that we are in c of (ii) now and all we get is a pullback to the 200 daily SMA (1116) or 13 daily EMA (1119).

A second alternate is that this may still be a wave 4.

Ok. Gotta run for the day.

(12:22 PM Update)

12:22 PM - 5 MIN
Had to step away for a bit. Looks like it is struggling to perhaps make a flat or zigzag.

(8:42 AM Update - Wave 3 Extension?) 

8:42 AM - 60 MIN

This is all starting to remind me of that rally back in July 2009. We had a wave 3 that just kept extending and we all were scratching our heads trying to find the correct count. 

That was at a time when I was a true P3 bear-believer. I've learned a thing or two since then. Perhaps we are seeing the same thing again. So this 60 min chart is just a thought.

(7:38 AM Update)

7:38 AM - 5 MIN

This may be the correct labeling afterall. As I mentioned earlier, I didn't like the way wave [A] counted.  We'll get confirmation of this if the market can climb back over the descending trendline.

Off the bottom so far, it appears we may have 5 waves up. A 38% retrace would take us back to 1130, it that occurs, it may not be a bad opp to scalp the bounce higher for a wave 3/c.

(7:35 AM Update)

I have to add that the 15 and 30 min MACD is starting to look bullish and possibly may be confirming my hunch that this pullback may be complete. We'll see..

(7:21 AM Update)

7:21 AM - 5 MIN
Well it appears we didn't get the higher retrace for [B] as posted yesterday at EOD. However, as posted in my EOD#2, I was still expecting a selloff and sure enough we got it. This certainly looks more like a simple corrective zigzag, A-B-C at the moment.

I don't necessarily like the way wave [A] counts because it looks more corrective (overlapping) than impulsive. That is fine though since I do expect the sell off to be corrective in nature.

The blue Fibs on the chart are extensions of wave [A]. [C]=[A] at 1120 and 1.618*[A] at 1109. Remember, 1109 has some significance as posted last night on the 60 min chart and re-posted below

7:21 AM - 60 MIN
Notice the hammer forming on the 60 min right on the 50 SMA. If we bounce here and make a higher high, I may have to count this pullback as a wave 4 and I already have one in mind. I won't place the labels yet because I think we may see some further selling.
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