Tuesday, September 28, 2010

9/28/10 EOD Update - 10:05 PM Update

10:05 PM Update

After fixing the link issues, I figured I add the ED/Tri trendlines to the chart so that it is easier to see what may be happening.

I'd say if 1150 fails to break over the next few days, the tri possibility increases.

9:45 PM Update

First of all, I hope the chart links have been corrected here.

Just going back to basics here, one cannot argue that technically the market is pushing higher. We have rising MAs with the 13 and 21 EMAs over the 200 SMA. The 34 EMA and 50 SMA is not too far behind.

Several posts ago I questioned whether this may be an extended wave three like we saw out of the failed head and shoulders back in July 2009. That wave just kept pushing higher and higher. We may just do the same here all the way to 1250 (head and shoulders target and diamond bottom) without a meaningful pullback. I guess we'll have to see.

I readjusted the neckline of the purple inverted head and shoulders. The market backtested the neckline last week as well as the 13 EMA.

The daily MACD is still hinting atsome type of pullback shortly just like the 60 min MACD the other day, which we saw with today's pullback though it was very termporary.

There is a clear rising channel which the market is at the top at now. It doesn't mean it can't breakout out of it and up but again, the daily MACD may be showing us something.

Keep in mind the pullback I'm looking for is only a wave (ii) because the weekly MACD is rising after having crossed up through it's centerline 2 weeks ago.

Earlier today I posted at 9:55 AM that I was seeing yet another ascending triangle or ending diagonal. I think at this juncture both imply possibly a higher high to come.

I have labeled a potential wave 5 ending diagonal on the chart below. I have also labeled an alternate ascending triangle as well.

The 60 min MACD is starting to turn bullish again and is very close to it's descending trendline. We either see one final negative divergence or it breaks out of that trend.
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