Thursday, September 30, 2010

9/30/10 : 12:25 PM

12:25 PM

Here's another view of that option posted at 9:05 am. I had posted this chart a week or so ago as well. Will have to keep an eye on this.

We are at the top of the channel though, along with a bearish leaning MACD on the daily.



9:47 AM Update - ED OPTION


*****9:53 AM*** Forget the ED as it is drawn on this chart. Just realized subwave [3] is larger than [1]. Sorry about that but I still like the scenario presented below regarding chasing performance.
Here's the a different ED option that also works. I included the wave 2 alternate that I had mentioned in 8:41 AM post.

This ED option may work if we believe fund managers are going to chase performance into the close of the quarter as many pundits cite.

This would be my take on this scenario. If there is a final 5th wave up here for this ED, it must form a 3 wave structure, 5-3-5. Say the fund managers chase performance into the close, this forms a 5 wave up.

Tomorrow, the beginning of the new quarter, profits are taken off resulting in 3 waves down. Then comes mutual fund Monday next week to get our final 5 waves up.

Hmmmm... I'm kinda liking this option :) As always, we'll see.




9:05 AM Update

This is actually what I am thinking aS an alternate if the remaining key support levels hold. All this still looks to corrective up and down to me and potentially forming a flat for a larger degree wave 4.

The ED as I had labeled is not looking so wedgish anymore. 1122.79 is a level I'm watching as well for this count.


(8:41 AM Update)


I'm going to say that minuette (i) is complete. We saw a wave v thrust out of the triangle this am. Wave v achieved a .618 ratio to wave i and it hit the mid EW channel.

The only alternate left is the ending diagonal count, which will be completely voided should 1132.09 fail since subwave 4 would overlap subwave 2.


** I will also add that it is very possible that we are only seeing a wave 2 pullback of v, which may have begun at the 8/23 low. I'm not too confident of this but it certainly looks like this wave 2 of v pullback is a complex flat. Chart to come***

(7:57 AM Update)

In yesterday's EOD post, I showed that v=.618*i at 1156. Today we printed a high of 1157.12. Technically that would be enough for wave v and a common ratio to i as well as equality.

What we need to watch for now is the ending diagonal trendline (lower) to hold and lastly 1141.02 to hold (this is the start of wave v).

If 1141.02 breaks, this rally up is mostly likely over and we are beginning minuette (ii) down, which I have been waiting for.


(6:42 AM Update)

5 Min

I will add that the ending diagonal is still in play. I've made the adjustments above.


6:33 AM

Here's our answer.
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