Thursday, September 9, 2010

9/9/10 - BOO YA BABY!

11:28 AM - False alarm?

As I always say with EW, "It is until it isn't." That triangle was "not" since it violated some rules. However, zooming back out to the 15 min view, the structure looks like a series of threes, which leads me to believe wave 4 was not complete and may be working out a larger flat.

Wave c of 4 down is in progress and some Fib extensions are projecting towards 1096-1087. If c=.618a=1101.
9:39 AM - 5 min

A 5 min peek. Possibly another wave 4 triangle.

Looks like we may have a breakout of this pattern. Stay tuned.

WAVE 4 TRI - 7:15 AM
This impulse up has been one of the easiest waves to count in a while and has acted accordingly so far.

Look at that nice breakout out of the wedge/pennant/possible tri. This is possible to count as a triangle and does make a difference in how wave 5 will be counted but either way, wave 4 is complete and we are now onto wave 5.

This chart I believe is how it should be counted. I added the mid channel line as an initial target for wave 5. So far EW channels have been working pretty spot on so this may be a good target.

If and when we get there, the real question then becomes, do I have waves 1 and 2 (black correct)? If so, then this will imply that we are only completing wave 3 (black). However, if the true start of this impulse began where wave 2 (black) ended, then this impulse may be counted complete pretty soon.

As captioned in the above chart, what the structure does after will be key. Since wave 2 (black) was a sharp pullback, wave 4 (black) may move sideways, per alternation, which is a guideline only of course and not a rule as many like to claim.

Here's a close up of the long term channel I have also been watching. (See larger chart below). The market broke out of the red channel and is approaching the 25% again, which provided resistance on 8/17 and 8/18. It appears another inverted head and shoulders pattern is in the works that would result in a break over this channel so stay tuned.

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