Monday, November 1, 2010

11/1/10 -EOD Update 1:00 PM

EOD Update 1:00 PM

See 12:57 PM update. We shall know tomorrow. More charts and analysis later. Gotta run for now.

12:57 PM Update-


SPX - 15 Min

Ok. I had a chance to count the squiggles again and this is a double zigzag, i.e. w-x-y.

Wave [E] retraced [D] 78.6% and wave y of [E] extended wave w by 1.272.

The market needs to breach 1186.42 to confirm that the move down today was only a corrective retrace for [E].


12:35 PM Update
SPX - 60 Min

Those who have followed the ascending triangle option with me, here is how I see it on the 60 min.

12:25 AM Update- Buckle Up?

SPX - 3 MIN

They really want to keep it within the trendlines. I changed the y wave to a c wave since it counts better as a 5 down and is nearly equal to a.

If this is it, we should see a decent rally into the close. The market needs to react back to at least 1186 to confirm this pullback was a correction.


12:08 PM Update

The market is at the bottom of the ascending trendline. Wave y=w at this juncture. The market cannot break below 1171.70. If it does, the odds are very great that the triangle is over.

The only other alternate to that would be that wave [C] is still in progress and a very complex corrective.

One hour to go.

11:45 AM Update

Is wave [E] complete?

11:08 AM Update

SPX - 3 MIN

Here is the possible path I am expecting. Notice that y=.618w at 1183ish (blue Fibs) and so does the 62% retracement of [D] (green Fibs).

I cautioned just below that the [E] retracement of [D] has been met too since the 10 min MACD is looking a little bullish right now.
10:56 AM Update

If we are working on [E], it has satisfied the minimum Fib retrace of [D] at 38% and 1186. The structure may also be counted as complete.

10:35 AM Update

I'm back sooner than I thought. At this point in time, it certainly appears that option 2 is the count.

I will assume that wave [E] is in progress and so far a double zigzag wave a completed and we are working on wave b (which may be a little triangle) right now.

Fib targets are indicating that 1183 would be the first logical target to see a bounce and a possible completion of [E]. I'll try to post a 5 min chart in a sec.
Gotta run for a couple hours. Hope to be back for the final hour.

8:05 AM Update


Option 2 is in the spotlight right now. We are building an ascending triangle at the moment.

7:57 AM Update


Here's an update to this chart I posted over the weekend. The market broke over the MACD trendline resistance.

Does it have enough gas to hit 1200 or the upper trendline (blue)?

My suspicions of an ascending triangle is gaining momentum.

Pre Market
/ES

Keep option 2 in mind as posted over the weekend. So far it does look like a backtest of the broken upper trendline of the wedge. We'll have to see if wave [B] at 1193 (cash 1196.14) is breached.
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