Wednesday, November 24, 2010

11/24/10 EOD UPDATE #2 [EDIT 10:00 PM]

[EDIT 10:00 PM]
See the 10 min chart below.

EOD UPDATE #2

Once again the 1177-1200 levels are key to watch. As you will see below, a bullish and bearish option still exists.

IDEALIZED MINOR 4

I start out with this chart. This has been my primary road mad for Minor 4. So far so good. I believe minuette (a) and (b) of minute [b] was in as of yesterday and today's rally was the beginning of minuette (c) of minute [b].

I show various targets for minute [b] based on the Fib relationships of (c) to (a).

(c) =(a) at approximately 1203
(c) -1.618*(a) at approximately 1220 (the top of my triangle trendline)

I don't have the alternate labels on this chart (they are on my option 1b chart though) but minuettes (a) and (b) may also represent minuettes (i) and (ii). Take a look at that option below. I didn't want to further crowd the chart out but something to be mindful of.

OPTION 1b

This option is right on track as well. Today's rally is part of minuette (c) or (iii). Notice that I have left open the possibility that the rally was only part of subminuette iii of (c) or (iii).

I will drill down the squiggles over the weekend. Based on my 10 min chart below I believe we may have seen all five waves up of (c) or (iii). Again. I'll take a closer examination over the weekend to see if the entire five wave structure may still be in progress.

SPX 10 MIN

Based on the 10 min chart, I believe the five wave structure was near completion with a final fifth wave ending diagonal (ED).

Within that ED, the final fifth completed subwave a. I would expect on Friday a small pullback representing subwave b of v and then a final thrust higher out of the trendline near 1203 or so.

As I stated above, I'll try to determine if this is only the completion of a third wave.


10 Min Option [EDIT 10:oo PM]

The initial 10 min chart above implies that an ending diagonal is forming at the top. The chart I have added here is a little different.

There are several three wave structures at the top and I believe that an alternate is the subminuette iv may still be in progress. Notice the ALT labels.

So the options here are:

1. A final ending diagonal is nearing completion for this rally leg
2. Subminuette v of minuette (c) completed waves micro [1] and [2] and began [3] into the close
3. Subminuette iv is still in progress and is working out a complex corrective.


DAILY BOLLINGER BANDS

One thing that favors the bears I believe is the fact that the market closed below the 20 SMA again. This action may support the chart below.

BEARISH HEAD AND SHOULDERS SETUP

This option is certainly not out. The various Fib retracements and extensions still clearly support this count.

Say the 10 min chart above is correct and the rally leg ends at approximately 1203-1206 (a 62% retracement of wave A black BTW), that would support the completion of wave C blue as highlighted in the above chart.

That would satisfy the completion of wave B black, which would then be followed by a substantial drop in wave C black down to 1146 if C=A or 1111 if the H/S target is met along with C=1.618*A and a 62% retracement of the entire rally off the August lows.
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