Friday, November 26, 2010

11/26/10 - EOD Update

EOD Update

A short day today. I have a few chart options in my mind that support a bullish and bearish case. For a while there, the bearish case was probably 30% but I will say I'm leaning closer to 50/50 now.

I'll try to post those charts over the weekend. Let's just say I do see a potential nested 1-2 down for minute [c] if the chart below completed minute [b]. However, I am watching the minute [b] triangle as the higher probable case for the bears.

The bullish case isn't over yet either. Ultimately we will have to see what the market does with those pink trendlines below.

Near term, I think this is where the market is heading:

SPX - 3 Min

See the potential nested 1-2 down option? From the top of wave b/ii, I see five clear waves down which was followed by an ABC corrective up of approximately 62% to mark the end of wave 2 blue.

Basic EW analysis calls for at least five more waves down. If using some Fib projections, we see there is a confluence at 1182.

The red Fibs represent the extension of wave a/i black. If c/iii black = a/i black the market should target 1182.

The green Fibs represent the extension of wave 1 blue. If 3 blue = 1.618*1 blue, we see a confluence there at 1182.

Notice the bottom of the pink trendline also marks the wave c/iii expansion ratio of a/i by 1.27?

8:04 AM Update

The two charts above have to be emphasized here. One must be mindful of these options as well.

7:22 AM Update

Either subminuette iv turned into the expanded flat as suspected the other day in the alternate count or minute [b] is forming a triangle
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