Monday, November 29, 2010

11/29/10 - EOD Update #2 [9:35 PM /ES Update]

[9:35 PM /ES Update]

/ES

What is /ES telling us? I have two counts up. Unfortunately there is no clarity.

Either a minute [b] descending triangle is forming, with minute [c] down to come or a Minor 4 triangle completed and Minor 5 up is underway.

EOD Update #2
Here are some charts as promised. Still way too many options since we have a series of corrective three wave structures. I am only sharing the ones I think are most relevant at the moment.

As mentioned earlier, we are range bound between 1200 and 1173. Until we get a decisive break, anything is fair game.

Trading this range may be the easiest thing to do until there is a decisive break.

Option 1a

This option was probably the only option that really didn't have to change other than drag subminuette b red down to today's low, which implies that minuette (y) of minute [b] is working on an expanded flat.

Based on this count, 1206 looks to be a decent target. Subminuette c red of (y) also = 1.618* subminuette a red of (y).

Option 1c

I still like this option as well. Sort of the same implications, higher towards 1206 but in a three wave [A]-[B]-[C] structure. Those who didn't get long at the bottom today may have an opportunity to scalp a [B] wave pullback and ride [C] up.

And if the count is wrong an is actually more bullish, then a nice surprise may be in store. I don't think [A] is complete yet. It may only be in its third wave up so we'll have to see how this plays out tomorrow.

Daily Bollinger Bands

Looks like the market bounced at the lower band and more importantly, I have been watching the daily MACD trendline.

I was speculating whether Minor 4 would end on this trendline before Minor 5 resumed it's move up. We'll have to be mindful of this scenario and see if this trendline holds.


Minute [b] Descending Triangle Option

There is still a chance that this is turning into a descending triangle for minute [b]. The subwaves may be a little premature but if this scenario plays out, lower highs will be made and a few more tests of 1173 will occur before the market breaks down.

A move above (a) green and the descending triangle option is out.

Head and Shoulders Option

Here is the more bearish scenario. I do find an issue with labeling today's decline as a wave 1 blue down. The internal subwaves (squiggles) looks more corrective to me at the smaller timeframes (1-5 minutes).

However, if looking at the structure on the hourly, one can make a case for this structure. The bears will have to sell the neckline or the bulls will have to buy up the beginning of wave 1 blue to void this option.
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