Thursday, November 4, 2010

11/4/10 - EOD Update - [EDIT 4:20 PM]

EOD Update - [EDIT 4:20 PM]



Above are the 3 and 1 min view of the rally out of the gate this am for what I have labeled as wave (iii). That is assuming wave [E] of the triangle ended on 11/1.

If the triangle ended yesterday, this rally may only be wave (i) of v.

I'm proposing that wave 5 of (iii) completed or is completing an ending diagonal (yeah yeah I know. Those damn EDs). It will be very easy to discount this count tomorrow because wave five of the ED is getting pretty close to the limit. It cannot exceed 1121.60 or so. I didn't drill down the exact points but suffice it to say if the market busts through 1121.70, it will be invalid.

There is one problem that I see with the ED count, that is, wave 4 does not retrace into 1, which is a requirement for EDs. However, EWP states that the DOW had one example of a valid ED where wave 4 did not retrace into wave 1 back in 1976.

EOD Update -
SPX - 60 Min

The market rallied today as anticipated out of the triangle. The daily MACD crossed up through it's signal line and nearly printed a very bullish marobozu essentially negating the hanging man printed yesterday.

Near the top, the waves became quite messy but I think we are near the end of wave (iii) of v of minute [iii]. The structure has stayed contained within the channel for nearly two months.

I was watching the top of the channel into the close and had expected a print of 1220. I believe 1232 is still relevant but most likely not before a wave (iv) pullback.

I'm guessing a pullback towards the middle of the channel at approximately 1206. This would make for an approximate 38% retracement and bring price back into the upper region of the Bollinger Bands.

SPX - Daily BB

SPX - Weekly MA

A very clean breakout above the 200 week MA. It currently sits at 1193.28. Unless we get a 2% sell off tomorrow, I believe we will close above it for the week.


It's been a while since I posted this chart. I had contemplated it last night because I noticed that the descending trendline resistance (market broke thru in Sept) on the MACD was providing support.

The market crossed through the middle channel today. Slowly climbing it's way higher.

I'll try to get a 5 min count on the top wave form later tonight.
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