Wednesday, December 8, 2010

12/8/10 EOD Update

Long day at the office today.

Just a few charts tonight. As suspected, some type of wave 4 is playing again. I think it may be a running triangle/expanded flat if /ES is providing some clues.

The only issue I have with considering a flat is the fact that wave a red looks too much like a five wave move down. Flats have an internal count of 3-3-5.

The shooting star candle from yesterday was not confirmed today either.

/ES

This looks like a potential running triangle or expanded flat in the works.

Option 1b

If cash follows the path of /ES, so far it looks possible. But considering the issue with the flat that I have above, the only other alternative I can think of at the moment is that (iv) ended at my red wave a and a nested 1-2 up for (v) occurred off today's bottom.


3 Min
Just a 3 min view of the squiggles. The two bear options I had today have been ruled out or have become very unlikely counts.

MAs

The last time we saw daily reversal candles all bunched up together, we ended up with a triangle. This may be playing out again.


The dollar is looking a little bearish near term. It broke back below support at 80.17 and MACD signal crossed down.

If this is a simple three wave corrective down, it appears waves a and b are in. The Fib extension tool was used above to project for wave c down. 78 looks like a possible target.

EUR/USD

Looks like it is due for a bounce. Bull cross on the MACD and possible a wave c up to approximately 1.36.



Lastly, this count option above is something I'm keeping an eye on as well if a triangle or flat plays out.
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