Thursday, February 10, 2011

2/10/11 - EOD Update [3:19 PM Update- The bearish Option is Invalid]

[3:19 PM Update- The bearish Option is Invalid]

Was just catching up to comments on the blog and Blankfiend of Fibs and Waves
kindly reminded me that the LD option for the chart at the bottom is not valid. He is correct.

In diagonals of the contracting type, wave 3 is smaller than 1 and 5 is smaller than 3. The way I have it counted, wave 3 is longer than 1, which invalidates it as an LD. That is fine, since it was an alternate and we have now been able to rule it out.

Thanks Blankfiend!

[2:53 PM Update - RUT]

My thoughts on RUT.

EOD Update

By mid-morning today, I felt a flat was playing out due to the fact that the waves were forming a series of threes. That is the primary view at the moment. The alternate is that minute [iv] of an extended Minor wave 3 is in progress.

Some bullish notes on the action into the close:

1. That unorthodox inverted head and shoulders pattern is up at the top here again. Price broke above the neckline, only to retrace back below and finally closed back above it.

2. Bullish 15-30 min MACD signaling some more upside momentum.

Here's the main count with a few options.

1. Wave b may not be quite complete yet. Per rule, wave b must retrace wave a at least 90%. So far it is shy by approximately 2 points. We may see a quick little move to the upside tomorrow and then a reversal for wave c down.

2. A triangle may be in the works. If this is the case, I would expect a drop for wave c tomorrow not to exceed the wave a low. See the chart below for the possible structure.

3. It is possible to potentially squeeze out a count indicating that the first two waves of a new impulse off today's low is in progress. I don't really hold to much weight to this one because the waves are pretty choppy but considering the inverted head and shoulders and bullish MACD, I still will keep it in mind.

Below are the main and alternates I am charting though.

15 Min

A closeup of the main count.

This is the alternate count. Minute [iii] still in progress.

[3:19 PM Update- The bearish Option is Invalid]

This chart below is invalidated.

15 Min

This supports a new trend down that will form minute [iv]. This count will be ruled out if a new high is made.
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