Wednesday, February 2, 2011

2/2/11 - EOD Update- The Bear Is Back

EOD Update

Actually the bear isn't really back but a bear count option is back. A boring day today as to be expected after a large run up the other day.

It was a little frustrating trying to guess which direction the market was going to break when it appeared a triangle was developing, which in the end I don't believe was the case.

The bulls couldn't follow through with another up day, however, I think the bias is still to the upside since the market held above 1300 and specifically 1303.

Today should be treated as a consolidation day, or a rest day as they say, before the march continues higher. At least that is what my primary count is telling me.

The primary count has wave 4 complete or just about complete into the close. The 60 min chart sports a nice looking pennant, which is bullish at the top there.

Take note though of the bearish looking MACD.

The 3 min chart breaks down wave 4. Some options for wave 4 depending if the subwaves are an a-b-c or w-x-y.

I think some proper Fibonacci retracement levels may help in determining where this leg may end should there be so follow through to the downside.

Here's an update to the Golden Section chart I posted last night. I didn't move a thing other than the wave 4 label. The first reaction low for this wave may have been the marker for wave 4.

We'll see if 1302 is the low for 4 and see if 1320 pans out for 5. For folks unfamiliar with the Golden Section topic, see this link.

Bear Count

And we bring the potential bear count back. Now, I call it a bear count only because it signifies a change but not a crash scenario.

Anyway, there is a way to view this as a potential wave 1 and 2 down so far. We'll just have to see and the bears have to bring it on and act on that 60 min macd bear cross that is setting up.

Ok. Gotta run for now. Will post more stuff later.
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