Friday, February 25, 2011

2/25/11 - Pre Market [5:11 AM Update]

[5:11 AM Update]

The channel charts below highlight what I'm thinking as mentioned previously at 4:43 AM below. It will help provide guidance to determine if the market goes to 1275 sooner than later or on to a much higher retracement to form a flat.

30 Min Closeup

Notice the underside of this channel targets approx 1313. This is different than the trendline that connects the Oct-Nov lows.

So if the market recaptures that channel, it most likely will climb higher. If it is rejected here, then the next leg down is probably in store towards the mid channel at 1278ish, which is a very relevant level.

I'll throw this chart up as a possible path the market may take if it want's to form a triangle. Notice that the first three waves (a, b and c) of a triangle is also the same as a flat formation. Granted wave c would usually pullback at least towards the end of wave a. However, running flats do not require wave Cs to travel that far. Again, just things to keep in mind as to the possible market paths based on my larger primary count.

Pre Market [4:43 AM]

As expected/anticipated, ES is up a decent amount. Will it hold into the open or swing wildly like it has the past few days.

I have a feeling it's going to hold since the ME/oil situation has been assuaged for now.

Here is the 5 min chart with a few little updates. I highlighted (bold green) the Aug-Nov 2010 trendline, which price is currently below.

I believe what the market does here initially this AM will tell us if the market is going to make a much steeper retracement. The underside of this trendline is currently near 1315.

I believe we will get a minimum of 1315 and backtest the underside of the trendline. That would also make wave c/y red = .618*a/w red.

Should the market manage to rally above that level c/y = a/w red at nearly 1320. I believe this may complete wave w blue. Or this may just complete all of the correction and it may hit the head and shoulders target at approximately 1325.

Wave x will then retrace back to the trendline and find support there before bouncing higher for wave y.

Keep in mind this scenario is a corrective structure, which would required a series of three wave structures.

Let's see how this pans out.
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