Monday, February 7, 2011

2/7/11 EOD Update [4:38 PM Update]

[4:38 PM Update]

Playing around with the Wave 3 extension count some more, I noticed a nice Fib confluence at 1350.

1. Wave 3 green = 2.618*1
2. (v) of [iii] = (i) of [iii]


[3:14 PM Update]

I updated the Wave 3 extension chart below.

[2:54 PM Update]

I keep forgetting to post this chart as well. I have been watching the two trendlines for support and I believe they are doing just that. This may very well support the Wave 3 extension scenario. We'll see as usual...

[2:34 PM Update]

>Wave 3 Extension Option

A brief discussion today about EDs had me digging in my Elliott Wave Principle book reviewing the rules and guidelines.

I have confirmed that for EDs, as per rule, wave 4s must retrace back into wave 1. But what I found in the guidelines that has me thinking about the structure since the 7/1/2010 low is that we may be seeing a wave 3 extension that began last Aug.

From EWP, 10th Ed, page 88, "Within an impulse, if wave 1 is a diagonal, wave 3 is likely to be extended."

See the chart above on this potential. The caveat to all this is that the structure off the July low is truly an impulse.

EOD Update

This channel chart has keep me on the right path now for some time. MACD buy signal was confirmed today. The top of the channel is at approximately 1333 tomorrow.

Primary Count

My primary count is still in tact. The 15 min chart below has some options for wave 3 red if the internals are counted correctly, so it is possible the little dip before the close may not be wave 4 red but a wave 4 of one degree lower.

I kept an eye on the 15 min MACD trendline today anticipating a bounce for a wave 4 near here. I believe that is what we saw near the end of the day.

ED Option

An update to the ED option. This count has SPX in wave 4. Either wave c of 4 drops tomorrow or wave b of 4 retraces a little higher before dropping.

Nothing in the way of fib fans except so potential levels of resistance above at 1360-1370.

The Fib technique has worked a few times now. The next heavy confluence level is at approximately 1450. We'll see.
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