Thursday, May 19, 2011

5/19/11 EOD Update

EOD Update

The market did not close back over the 20 day SMA and is still within it's down channel off the 1370 high. The waves continue to move in corrective threes so a few things are still on the table for maximum frustration.

Near term, there may be a triangle playing out as part of another corrective three wave move up, which still fits well with my Minor 5 Expanding Ending Diagonal, Minor 4 Flat count and the count I am presenting again that implies a larger triangle at play. I call that count one to ponder.

The inverted head and shoulders pattern may still be developing as highlighted on the 60 min chart below. For balance, it may require one more little leg down to test the 1332 area however, if the near term triangle structure is playing out, the right shoulder may just develop sideways.

I think we should know no later than next week sometime if this is correctly playing out.

5 Min

60 Min

Still in the channel and may need another leg down for the right shoulder or maybe not.

Minor 5 Expanding Ending Diagonal

Minor 4 Flat Option

The sub-options still apply.

One To Ponder

The Bear count
Still lower probability but technically still valid until 1351.05 is taken out on the upside.
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