Wednesday, May 25, 2011

5/25/11- EOD Update [10:42 PM Update - ES Inverted Head and Shoulders?]

[10:42 PM Update - ES Inverted Head and Shoulders?]

Target for the inverted head and shoulders is approx 1342, which could just be back at the top of the channel.

EOD Update

Last night's positive MACD divergence in ES gave me some confidence that the market would make a move for the 50 SMA today.

As posted in pre-market today, I was expecting at least an 11 point swing for ES at the market open after it's initial pullback if the second leg up would equal the first. Not only did we see 11 points but actually 18 since the second leg expanded the first by 1.618*.



ES

As I type this, ES is currently backtesting it's mid-channel, which it climbed over. We'll see what the reaction is overnight.


It's been good times with all the chop. It gives me more confidence in the Minor 4 scenario and it's suboptions.

The bulls still have their work cut out for them if they want to see new highs. Things that still need to be considered:

1. Market still withing the down channel
2. Still closed below the 50 day SMA
3. A bearish count remains in play

60 Min

Very possible this corrective move from 1370 has completed. One thing about today's bounce is we must give consideration to an expanded flat for wave b of (y).

Minor 4 Option

Minor 4 is still resolving itself and all the chop still leaves plenty of room for different options. I will say I favor this option the most at this point in time. We'll just have to keep watching.

Minor 4 Triangle

Minor 5 Expanding Ending Diagonal

I don't really like this option too much anymore but it hasn't been invalidated. Besides, it still implies the same thing as the Minor 4 option so we'll just keep watching this too.

BEAR COUNT

This count also remains valid. Should the market push higher through that horizontal line, this count will most likely be invalidated.


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