Wednesday, May 4, 2011

5/4/11 - EOD Update [4:26 PM Update]

[4:26 PM Update]

I forgot to follow up with the YM chart I posted last night. Here it is again above.

Now compare it to today's action below.

Initially I thought wave x would turn into a tri before heading lower in a wave y. It turns out wave x was a flat. Wave y still = wave w though so we'll have to see if that has completed the correction or does this three wave structure represent a larger degree wave w.

If it is only the first leg down of a larger wave w, at a minimum we should see a wave x bounce of at least 38% of this decline. However, if the correction is complete, a new impulse wave up should be anticipated.

EOD Update

The selling continues in a corrective fashion down. The market has found support at the 13 day EMA and the inverted h/s neckline and horizontal support at the Minor 3 high.

It's very possible the market may want to test the 20 day MA as well since the bounce off the day's low may only be an x wave (see 15 min corr count below).

We will have to keep an eye on the daily MACD , which is rolling over, and it's trendline support.

I am still giving the Minor 5 bull count option the benefit of the doubt here until proven otherwise. Still watching the Minor 4 flat option as well

Minor 5 Bull Option

15 Min Impulse

A corrective move down to a 38% retracment. That's a valid retracement level.

Minor 4 Option

15 Min Corrective

Minor 5 Option

RUT Daily

A wave 5 ED?

RUT - 3min

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