Today the market tagged 1188.36 before rebounding. So far so good.
Intraday, I was expecting a possible wave x bounce but noticed that the internal count would justify a 1-2 i-ii bounce off the 1188 low. Please see the 1 min chart below for this count. So far so good there to.
So bottom line, the primary blue count has the market working on wave i of (c)/(y) of (Y)/(C) ahead of the FOMC meeting.
The alternate count has the bounce off today's low as a wave x of (b)/(x) [follow blue count] and a wave y down is to follow (see the RUT chart below as to why this may be possible).
Even with the RUT's bearish head and shoulders potential, I favor the primary (obviously or it wouldn't be the primary) for the following reasons:
1. 15 min MACD centerline cross
2. The market's move out of the base channel accelerated and so far has successfully backtested the top of the base channel (See the 1 min chart below on this) and remains within the acceleration channel.
3. The market bounced at 38% retracement of wave (a)/(w), which would satisfy a proper retracment for wave (b)/(x).
So until a lower low is made, I stick with this. We should know more by tomorrow.
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| Blue Count - Primary |
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| 5 Min |
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| 1 Min |
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| RUT - 15 Min Head and Shoulders |
