11/17/11 - EOD Update [8:00 PM Update]

[8:00 PM Update]

ES

Let's see if the positive MACD divergence and bounce near trendline support results in a rally.


[3:50 PM Update]

3 - Push Pattern

Here's an update to this longer term chart I have presented in the past which I believe backs how important the daily MACD TL is at the moment if the bulls want another leg higher.

SPX - DAILY

A very simple view of a breakout and backtest. 


EOD Update

The market has chosen to follow the alternate triangle2 count option I have been presenting.  And as mentioned last night, the previous Alternate 1 count (which is now the primary below) is generally the same count as the triangle 2. I have basically merged the two and have renamed it the primary below.

I think the daily MACD trendline I have been pointing out will play a key role in determining whether the market puts in a santa rally. See the daily chart below.

PRIMARY

So far Fib extensions (y=.618*2), Fib retracements  (38%) and 50 day SMA have all been hit with the move down to approximately 1215.

These were projected targets for this count based on last night's post. Is this complete for the correction or will there be one more leg down to the 50% retracement level at 1184 which so happens to be another Fib extension target?

PRIMARY - DAILY

Here's a look at the daily with the MAs and MACD. I think the trendline will be a key indicator to determine whether the market has found a floor on this pullback or if it has further more to go.

ALTERNATE 1

Remember this count? I never eliminated it. I just didn't need to keep up with it since the Triangle 2 count accounted for the directional move.

Now that the neckline has broken, we'll need to see if the market can rally back thru it or see if it is rejected.