Tuesday, November 29, 2011

11/29/11 - EOD Update [3:43 PM Update- LD Watch]

[3:43 PM Update- LD Watch]

I forgot to mention that I am starting to look for a potential Leading Diagonal off the 11/25 low. This is way to early to speculate but just wanted to put that out there. I updated this on the Primary Options chart below in pink.

EOD Update

SPX challenged it's 50 day SMA today only to end the day with a shooting star candlestick. As mentioned yesterday, is the contrarian move here to play a move higher?

It is likely that many folks sold into the 50 day SMA (hence the shooting star). Is that enough fuel to create a squeeze through the 50 day and in turn triggering some other buy signals? We'll see since the most bullish count option below accommodates that scenario.

If the bears are back we must continue to watch the alternate1 count.

Primary Options
** Keep an eye out for a potential LD here too.**

Per the primary options above, the count has the market heading higher.

The most bullish option(blue) is that a nested 1-2 i-ii up formed off the 11/25 low.

The green option has a wave 4 working out a double zigzag. Either wave x is complete, or may have some more to go below before one more stab higher.

The most bullish option requires a gap and go starting tomorrow morning or else the 30 min macd confirmed sell signal favors the green option here as well as the bearish alternate below.

Alternate 1

The bearish alternate option remains in play. I have it working out a more complex wave 4, which is very similar to the green option above.

I have included the more bearish nested 1-2 i-ii down options should the 4-1 overlap at 1215.42 occur.

VIX - Daily
The VIX closed below it's 20 day SMA again and the daily MACD is rolling over. Could this be lining up with the bullish count?
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