Monday, November 14, 2011

EOD Update - 11/14/11 [7:30 PM Update - DJT Leading?]

[7:30 PM Update - DJT Leading?]

Here's a chart of the transports. One can certainly argue that this triangle may be complete with a break out to the upside. Now look at the SPX count below

I originally posted this version of the count on 11/7/11. It was labeled alternate 3 at the time. 

I even wrote, "This one may get the bears excited only to disappoint.Interesting... 

Since everyone is concerned about this triangle being so obvious, this may have been the obvious but not so obvious triangle, which would fool folks playing the contrarian. We shall know soon enough. 

EOD Update

The market sold off towards the 20 day SMA and 50 day EMA and bounced. So far all this still looks corrective and continues to support the triangle pattern.

I'm going to mainly stick with this count for now since it makes the most sense at the moment until price can break out of the trendlines (up or down). My primary and alternate 1counts are still in play but I won't update them until they decisively play out.

Triangle 1 - Daily
There is a very good chance that wave D is still in progress as I speculated a few days ago. Today's pullback would be considered the 2nd leg of wave D and a 3rd leg up should be expected soon to tag the upper TL.

Should this occur, this should provide for a complex wave D. The top of the TL at the moment is 1270 and drops as the TL descends.

The alternate to this is that wave D is complete and the market either completed wave E today or will put in one more leg down to the bottom TL before bouncing up and thrusting out of the triangle.

Triangle 1- 60 min

Daily Bollinger Band

Triangle 2 - Daily
This is possibly the other way to count this triangle. MACD's configuration should provide a clue I believe as price approaches the apex of the triangle.

Alternate 2
I still have this count on my radar but have my doubts since the wave structure off the 11/11 high counts more corrective than impulsive.
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