Wednesday, January 11, 2012

1/11/12 - EOD Update

Not much of a follow through to yesterday's break out. However, there wasn't a reversal either, which would usually happen following a break out of a triangle if the wave structure was complete.

The hourly MACD -ve divergence continues to unfold. The histograms is suggesting that there may be one more attempt at turning up though.

Given the continued divergence I have revamped the 60 min primary count to correlate better with the daily below.
SPX - Daily Primary
Per the daily, I am looking for a Minor degree W-X-Y (green) to complete Intermediate wave (B) blue to form a large flat; it can also just be a zig zag.

Note the impulsive alternate on this primary is a Minor degree wave 3 is in progress via a minute [1]-[2].

SPX - 60 Min Primary
This count supports the corrective option on the daily Primary. I'm looking for minute wave [c] to complete an ED to complete Minor Y of Intermediate (B) near 1310-1315. This would touch the descending TL connecting the 5/2/11 - 7/7/11 highs .

Note the continued -ve divergence.

SPX - 15 Min - Impulse Option
This has been the primary count I have been posting. I will continue to track this since this supports the Impulsive option on my daily Primary chart.

With the continued -ve divergence though, we will have to be cautious of this option. Should the market break through the -ve divergence, then we can focus more closely on this count again.

In the meantime both this option and the corrective 60 min Primary option are still looking for a target near 1300 so we'll go with it for now.
SPX - ED Option
Should the -ve divergence result in steeper drop rendering both counts above invalid, this is still the one to watch as a backup.
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